Growth of 0.1% expected in the third quarter, according to estimates from the Banque de France

The Banque de France confirmed on Monday that it expected modest growth of 0.1% in gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter, after a month of September where activity “resisted” but in a contrasting manner, according to its monthly economic survey. According to this survey, carried out among 8,500 business leaders (between September 27 and October 5), activity continued to progress in September in industry and accelerated in commercial services, while it changed little in construction.

“Activity is resisting, but with situations which still remain differentiated between sectors of activity and in a weakened environment, in particular with the rise in the price of oil at the end of the summer, and the rise in uncertainty,” explained Yannick Kalantzis, deputy director general of statistics at the Banque de France, at a press conference. These elements “confirm our forecast of GDP growth for the third quarter at 0.1%,” he added.

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The Banque de France had already indicated in mid-September that it was counting on growth of 0.1% in the third quarter (compared to 0.2% previously forecast), after a decline of 0.2% in GDP in the first quarter and stability in the second. It also lowered its forecast for the whole year to 0.4%, compared to 0.5% previously. By sector, the increase is “less strong than anticipated” in industry and “masks contrasting developments”, explains the Banque de France.

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Aeronautics is dynamic, catering is in decline

Aeronautics remains very dynamic and activity is growing in the food industry, metallurgy and automobiles. Clothing-textiles-footwear rebounded strongly, and production progressed in optical computer-electronic products, but less than expected. In electrical equipment, production fell after the high level in August, but demand remains strong, driven in particular by data centers.

Other sectors are less dynamic, such as rubber, plastic-glass products, where activity is stagnating, or wood-paper-printing, where it is stabilizing after two months of decline. In services, situations are also differentiated. Activity is particularly supported by business services. But it is falling in transport and catering, penalized by weak household consumption. In construction, activity progressed slowly.

“The French economy is resisting” the fuel crisis

For October, business leaders anticipate an acceleration in industrial production, a slowdown in services and virtual stability in construction. Uncertainty is also rising significantly, with concerns about fuel prices and, more broadly, the economic situation and purchasing power.