“A very sharp increase linked to the war in the Middle East”: visualize the surge in gas prices since the start of 2026

A new rise, just as we turn on the radiators again. The reference price of gas increases on Sunday, November 1, by 6.6% for the six million households benefiting from indexed tariffs* (60% of residential gas subscribers), in other words which vary every month depending on market prices. According to the Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE), the average reference price will be 194.90 euros including tax per megawatt hour (MWh) in November, compared to 182.88 euros in October and 136.88 euros/MWh in January 2026.

This benchmark sales price for natural gas, which includes energy costs on wholesale markets and non-supply costs (transport, storage, etc.), has therefore jumped 42.4% since the start of the year. “This very strong increase is linked to the war in the Middle East,” explains Nicolas Goldberg, energy expert at Colombus Consulting and Terra Nova. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of global production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Qatar passed, forced certain countries (mainly Asian) to turn to other suppliers, which caused strong competition to supply themselves with gas and therefore an increase in prices.

“At the beginning of January, [the wholesale price of natural gas] was around 30 euros/MWh, compared to 90 euros today,” continues Nicolas Goldberg. The Dutch TTF futures contract, considered the European benchmark on the wholesale market, for example exceeds 90 euros/MWh – 97.50 euros/MWh Monday October 26 – a level it has not reached since December 2022 and the energy shock linked to the outbreak of war in Ukraine.

“It’s complicated to anticipate a real drop in prices before the end of winter”

So far, the rise in prices linked this time to the conflict in the Gulf has had little impact on household bills since it occurred in spring and summer, at a time when gas is only used for cooking and hot water. But the return of winter will force the French to turn on the heating again, and therefore to use a lot more gas.

If the situation remains "roughly stable between now and the end of the year", CRE estimates that the annual bill for 2026 could be on average 11% higher than the bill for 2025 for subscribers to indexed tariffs. An average increase of around 135 euros. As Europe enters winter with lower than normal gas stocks, prices could continue to rise in the coming months. “It is difficult to predict prices as they depend on global geopolitics, but it seems complicated to anticipate a real fall before the end of winter,” summarizes Nicolas Goldberg.