US job growth slows in September amid calendar factors

US job growth slowed more than expected in September, but that likely does not signal a material shift in the labour market, with the weakness likely related to a calendar quirk.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 29,000 jobs last month after ‌a downwardly revised 133,000 rise in August, the Labor Department’s closely watched employment report showed on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls advancing 90,000 after a previously reported 162,000 surge in August.

Estimates ranged from as low as 35,000 to as high as 180,000. Volatility linked to seasonal adjustment factors, the model the government uses to strip out seasonal fluctuations from the data, probably accounted for both the meagre payroll gains last month ⁠and the downward revision to August’s count.

Payrolls have a tendency to underperform when the Labour Day holiday falls late ‌in the month, as was the case this year, economists noted. There have been no signs of a broad increase in lay-offs. First-time applications for unemployment benefits have been hovering at ‌57-year lows amid robust corporate profit growth and resilient domestic demand.

Economists, however, expected that growing headwinds ⁠from the US-Israel war with ⁠Iran, including high energy prices and strained supply chains, would start disrupting the labour market by the end of this year and into 2027.