US think tanks: Trump unlikely to abandon Taiwan, sees it as key to US-China competition

Central Institute for Economic Research (CIER) President Lien Hsien-ming pointed out that US think tank analysis suggests it is impossible for Trump to abandon Taiwan, and US-China competition has become a foregone conclusion, with Taiwan being a crucial pivot for determining victory or defeat. (Illustration, AFP file photo)

[Central News Agency] US President Donald Trump stated after the Trump-Xi summit that the pending arms sale to Taiwan is a good bargaining chip. CIER President Lien Hsien-ming stated today that US think tanks believe Trump is unlikely to abandon Taiwan, and US-China competition has become a foregone conclusion, with Taiwan being a crucial pivot for determining victory or defeat.

Trump (Donald Trump) met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in mid-May. After concluding his visit to China, Trump said he would make a decision on the $14 billion arms sale to Taiwan soon, calling the arms sale to Taiwan a "good bargaining chip." In response, Lien Hsien-ming posted on Facebook today, sharing assessments from US think tanks on the impact of the Trump-Xi meeting on Taiwan.

Lien Hsien-ming stated that on the security front, US think tanks believe Trump is unlikely to abandon Taiwan for three main reasons. Firstly, Trump does not want to be remembered as the US president who abandoned Taiwan. Secondly, Trump's national security report mentions Taiwan eight times, indicating that the national security team places considerable importance on the First Island Chain. Furthermore, US-China competition has become a foregone conclusion, and Taiwan is a crucial pivot for determining victory or defeat.

However, Lien Hsien-ming said that some think tanks still remind that Trump might use arms sales to Taiwan for negotiations with China. Since China values this issue, Trump will naturally use it as a chip, "but it is more likely to be a delayed announcement rather than a cancellation of the arms sale." China is also aware of this possibility, which is why the trade items and amounts announced in this Trump-Xi meeting were lower than originally expected, and both sides are observing subsequent actions. As the two leaders may meet multiple times this year, they are both testing each other's bottom lines.

On the economic front, Lien Hsien-ming stated that the most interesting aspect is when discussing Taiwan's trade surplus with the US, which was about $150 billion last year and may exceed $200 billion this year. Some US think tanks have kindly reminded that if Trump learns of this figure, it could provoke a strong reaction, and Taiwan might again be asked to increase its investment in the US.

He further explained that although our side explains that about $40 billion of this is due to Korean AI memory, and Taiwan is helping the US build the foundation of the AI supply chain, think tanks still remind that Trump does not have time to look at the details. What Trump cares about is how much Taiwan will invest in the US this year, how many jobs it will create, and which investments fall into key districts for the midterm elections to help him win the election. These are what can appease Trump's obsession with the trade deficit.

Lien Hsien-ming also pointed out that think tanks agree that Taiwan's semiconductor supply chain is very important to the US, paying particular attention to the resilience of the semiconductor supply chain and Taiwan's international layout of TSMC. They also discussed Taiwan's energy layout, considering how Taiwan would respond and ensure energy stability if China were to adopt a blockade strategy similar to Iran's.

Regarding the political aspect, Lien Hsien-ming stated that Washington think tanks do not believe there will be a new declaration or communiqué. It will likely be a case of each side stating its own views and expressing its position, with no substantial changes. However, in terms of prestige, Trump advocates for great power politics, "not necessarily caring about value alliances, and will clearly prioritize China, not necessarily giving Taiwan preferential treatment."