US elections: How Trump's course challenges the federal government

Donald Trump is not on the ballot, but US congressional elections are always a vote on the policies of the incumbent president. When all members of the House of Representatives and a third of the Senate vote in the USA today, it will also be decided how much political leeway Trump will have in his remaining two years in office.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) is a transatlanticist through and through. But no matter whether it's security and defense policy or Trump's customs policy - his "America first" strategy doesn't make his job as Chancellor any easier.

Therefore, Merz's sober expectation is that, regardless of the outcome of these elections, the United States will continue to change its foreign policy and economic policy and redefine its interests. Merz continues: "And if they do that, then we have to do that too."

Further impeachment proceedings possible

If the Democrats have the majority in one or even both chambers of Congress in the future, they can block laws, initiate investigative committees and exert greater control over the government. Another impeachment procedure, the third, would also be possible.

If the domestic political situation is bad, Trump could let off steam where his power is greatest: in foreign policy. That's why the status of the transatlantic relationship remains: "It's complicated".

Nouripour: Concentrate on your own strengths

The Green politician Omid Nouripour is hoping for gains from the Democrats and thus greater parliamentary control for Trump. In any case, he recommends not “doing Trump astrology” all the time. You have to concentrate on your own strengths and see how you can get out of dependencies.

Nouripour says it is unclear whether the US is still a reliable partner. What worries him most is a further steady withdrawal by the Americans of their support for Ukraine.

Trump recently issued a decree suspending sanctions against Russia. Congress fought over it for a good year and ultimately passed the package with a large majority in both chambers.

No foreign policy change expected

Trump's advances towards Russian ruler Vladimir Putin, the dispute over Greenland, customs policy - trust in the USA is severely strained. A survey by the Bertelsmann Foundation shows: In Germany, only one in four people consider the USA to be a trustworthy partner. Nevertheless, two thirds would like to see closer cooperation. Where it makes sense.

Brandon Bohrn, an expert on transatlantic relations, does not expect a change in course in foreign policy, regardless of the new majorities in Congress. Because Trump doesn't have to win another election. He also doesn't have the impression that the future of the Republicans is Trump's top priority.

Therefore, in his eyes, Europe should not assume that a Democratic victory will moderate Trump's foreign policy. On the contrary. Its course could become even more volatile and confrontational.

The next challenge is ahead

For Markus Frohnmaier of the AfD, the USA remains Germany's most important Western partner. He told the ARD capital studio that the resilient partnership between Germany and the USA also endures differences, such as on questions of customs policy or the war in Iran.

When it comes to Iran, CDU foreign policy expert Jürgen Hardt expects a negotiated solution from Trump. Ultimately, it turned out to be a fallacy that this conflict could be resolved militarily.

The next challenge lies ahead: The USA is currently assessing its troop presence and military structure in Europe. The US government plans to announce later this year whether and to what extent it would like to reduce its military presence - including in Germany.

Another more or less forced step for the continent to become more independent from the USA. Because the president remains the commander in chief of the armed forces - regardless of who gets the majority in the Senate and House of Representatives today.