USA: “It’s an election against Donald Trump”

NDR Info: Have the counts since midnight been going as you expected? What are you taking away from the election results so far?

Michael Werz: This election result exceeded the expectations of the Democrats and also the expectations of most pollsters. There was a high degree of uncertainty about how accurately the election forecasters would be able to predict the outcome. We had relatively bad experiences in 2016 and 2020. In this respect, it was a difficult time before the election.

Now it looks like the Democrats will surprisingly gain seven seats in the Senate. They are currently gaining more than 18 seats in the House of Representatives. That means there are clear majorities in both chambers and that is clearly changing the political situation in the United States.

Trump as a “binding agent” for the Democrats

NDR Info: You keep a special eye on the Democrats' strategy. After his first term in office, Donald Trump was stopped as president by a friendly, experienced, union-friendly former vice president. Are the Democrats more broadly positioned in this general election and is this also a testing ground for the future lineup?

Werz: Yes, this is a test field. The Democrats have a broader base. This is also a discussion that is going on within the party, which is also reflected in Europe, that of course you need a different candidate for a city like New York than for the rural regions in Ohio or Pennsylvania. The scope of the Democratic Party is enormous.

This is also due to the ideologically narrow leadership of the Republicans, who have retreated to white, Christian nationalism and as a result the political context of the Democratic Party has expanded dramatically. Almost too much, one has to say. The point that also needs to be seen is that Donald Trump is an incredibly important glue, especially given the heterogeneity of the Democratic Party. And the election was an election against him.

The difficult time for the Democrats begins tomorrow. And now it's time to consolidate those gains if you want to have a good chance of winning the presidency in November 2028.

What levers the Democrats have now

NDR Info: Let's first look at the next two years. What are the Democrats in Congress doing with their stronger position? Work through Trump and his administration and bounce back in committees or during impeachment? Or do they look ahead to the congressional and presidential elections in two years and present Americans with plans and people for a new era?

Werz: It will go both ways. There will be a crackdown on the government, on rampant corruption, on what is perceived as illegal activity in the judiciary, the military, the Department of Homeland Security and other areas of the administration.

Legislative activity will largely come to a standstill. The Democrats can symbolically pass laws with a majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate, but in the United States the President has the right to veto. This can only be overruled with a two-thirds majority in both chambers. That won't happen.

But the Democrats have an important lever that is often overlooked. We are once again approaching the debt ceiling due to the high national debt. And in order to raise this debt limit, which is constitutionally fixed, the approval of the House of Representatives is required. This could be a very important lever of power for the House of Representatives in April or May of this year, depending on when it occurs. Especially if there is a stable majority, which is what it looks like at the moment.

“Warm up” for the presidential candidacy from October 2027

NDR Info: For you, if we look ahead two years or probably just one year until the start of the presidential election campaign, are senators and representatives who have now done well against Republicans, perhaps even where it was the most difficult terrain so far, a presidential candidate most likely to emerge or is it more likely to be a governor with a track record?

Werz: I suspect - but of course this is all speculative, with a lead time of 24 months - that it will be one of the governors, one of the men, one of the white governors. I think there is a tacit understanding in the party that this has to be the candidate for 2028. That says a lot about the mental state of the country, but it is what it is.

It would be far too early to start this discussion now. The Democrats campaigned on the issues of cost of living and energy prices. Promises were also made that are difficult to keep, especially if you don't have the White House in your own hands. And tackling inflation and international energy prices is of course a difficult undertaking for a single parliament.

This means that a consolidation phase must now take place and one can expect that in the fall of next year, in October after the summer break, the candidates will warm up and the candidates for the Democratic primary in 2028 will start in January.

"I don't think there will be a realignment among the Republicans"

NDR Info: And the Republicans who are now being pruned in Congress: When will they abandon Trump and look for a departure into something new, perhaps also in style and in how they address voters, or will they follow the path with him to the end?

Werz: That's a good question. The party has turned into an authoritarian cult rather than fulfilling democratic standards, traditional conservatism and its constitutionally guaranteed control functions. In view of this dramatic loss, the candidates for the presidency in 2028 will perhaps warm up and position themselves much sooner than was expected.

This also poses a certain risk for the candidates because they will of course have to survive the whole of 2027 and make themselves politically vulnerable. And there will also be an oath of loyalty to Donald Trump, or a movement to remove him if you don't want to deal with this baggage any further. These are very difficult questions from a Republican perspective.

I do not believe that there will be a reorganization of the party in the sense of a continental European, traditional conservatism with an enlightened style. Too much has been destroyed and right-wing extremist, Christian nationalist and white supremacy ideologies have found too strong an influence in this party.

The interview was conducted by Markus Schubert, NDR Info. The interview was slightly adapted for the written presentation.