USA: Fear of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2028 is decreasing

According to information provided by Reuters, American officials are less and less afraid that China will decide to take Taiwan by force before 2028. Although Chinese leader Xi Jinping has ordered the army to be ready for a possible invasion by 2027, current assessments indicate serious delays in implementing these plans.

Delays in the Chinese army and waiting for the elections

The main reason for Washington's change in position are the difficulties faced by the Chinese People's Liberation Army. Xi Jinping's extensive anti-corruption campaign led to significant reshuffles in the Central Military Commission - of the seven active members, only two remained, including Xi himself. This seriously weakened the decision-making and operational capabilities of the Chinese military.

Additionally, the authorities in Beijing are said to be interested in the results of the presidential elections in Taiwan, which will take place in 2028. Some Chinese officials hope that a more conciliatory government will be established in Taipei, which could open the way to peaceful negotiations.

Will the risk increase after 2028?

However, experts warn that the situation could escalate rapidly after 2028, especially if the Democratic Progressive Party retains power and President Lai Ching-te is re-elected. Then Beijing may decide that the only way to take control over Taiwan is to use force.

American sources emphasize that China is analyzing its experience from the conflicts in Iran and Ukraine, realizing the need to carry out a truly rapid operation. However, the current level of preparations is considered insufficient to undertake such a complex military action.

Taiwan is not backing down

The authorities in Beijing have never ruled out taking control of Taiwan by force. The Chinese leader calls the issue of "reunification" of Taiwan with mainland China a fundamental issue of the territorial integrity of the PRC, constituting a key element of the "great rebirth of the Chinese nation."

The island's democratic authorities firmly reject these claims, which they call an attempt at "annexation", emphasizing that only the people of Taiwan can decide about its future.