USC vs. Indiana prediction, pick, odds, spread: Hoosiers-Trojans clash loaded with CFP stakes
Indiana's quarterback situation remains uncertain as both teams battle for College Football Playoff positioning.
Quick Look
- 9 Indiana hosts No.
- 18 USC on Saturday, Nov.
- 14 at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington, with major College Football Playoff implications.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
Indiana entered the week ranked No. 9 but fell five spots in the College Football Playoff rankings during its bye week. USC is outside the CFP picture but can change that with a road win over Indiana after beating Ohio State in Week 9. Indiana's season-long starter Josh Hoover injured his throwing arm in Week 9 and was benched after subsequent struggles, with Grant Wilson entering and completing 9 of 17 passes for 156 yards and a touchdown.
No. 9 Indiana is feeling the heat for its Big Ten showdown with No. 18 USC on Saturday after falling five spots in the College Football Playoff rankings during its bye week. But the Hoosiers, who have yet to announce a starting quarterback for the game, can calm the waters by notching a quality win over the visiting Trojans.
USC is lagging outside the CFP picture…for now. That will change if the Trojans can upset IU on the road after beating Ohio State in their last game during Week 9. A win would also catapult USC into the Big Ten title race, revitalizing a season that appeared to be in peril after a 24-7 loss at Wisconsin on Oct. 24.
The question is which Indiana quarterback the Trojans will be tasked with defending. Season-long starter Josh Hoover injured his throwing arm during Indiana's Week 9 win over Minnesota and was benched after subsequent struggles. Veteran backup Grant Wilson entered and completed 9 of 17 passes for 156 yards and a touchdown, sparking a quarterback controversy.
Hoosiers coach Curt Cignetti was noncommittal this week on who will take the first snaps for IU, forcing USC to be ready for either option. The situation has created some late-season intrigue for the reigning national champions, who have been unable to pull away from most of their Big Ten opponents during an 8-1 (5-1 Big Ten) start.
Where to watch USC vs. Indiana live
Date: Saturday, Nov. 14 | Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Location: Memorial Stadium -- Bloomington, Indiana
TV: CBS | Live stream: CBSSports.com, CBS Sports App
Streaming on Paramount+ Premium
USC vs. Indiana: Need to know
Can USC match Indiana's physicality?: Regardless of who is at quarterback for Indiana, USC's defense will have its hands full with the Hoosiers' skill talent. Physical receivers Charlie Becker and Nick Marsh comprise one of the best 1-2 tandems in college football. Meanwhile, IU running backs Turbo Richard and Lee Beebe Jr. are both averaging more than five yards per carry and are over 700 yards each for the season. USC has never been known for its physicality under coach Lincoln Riley, but keeping the Hoosiers in check will require it. Going on the road and winning against a team with Indiana's gritty DNA wouldn't just be a huge boost for the Trojans' playoff aspirations; it would also help change the perception of Riley's program.
Indiana's CFP outlook: Indiana's chances of making the playoff will reach near "lock" status at 96.2% with a win, according to the CBS Sports CFP Forecaster. A loss would leave the Hoosiers with a 66.8% chance of selection and bring greater scrutiny to a resume lacking high-end fare. An Oct. 10 win over Nebraska is not aging well, as the Cornhuskers are on a four-game losing streak. After that, IU's best win is either on the road against a 5-4 Michigan team or at home against a 6-3 Northwestern team. However you slice it, the Hoosiers don't have a win against a team currently ranked in the CFP Top 25. Beating USC would change that...assuming the Trojans remain in the rankings.
USC's CFP outlook: This is do-or-die for USC's playoff hopes. The Trojans' chances of making the field will rise to 51.5% with a win and plummet to 3.7% with a loss. In other words, the playoff has already started for Lincoln Riley's team. It's really a simple formula: finish 3-0 with wins over Indiana, Maryland and USC, and the Trojans will unquestionably make the playoff for the first time. Lose any of those games, and it's probably over for what is arguably the most historic program to have never appeared in the CFP.
USC vs. Indiana prediction, picks
Five of Indiana's six Big Ten games have been decided by a touchdown or less. The only exception was a 47-15 win against an overmatched Rutgers team. The Hoosiers haven't shown the ability to pull away and dominate quality opposition. So long as IU limits catastrophic turnovers, it will win the game on the basis of its physicality on both lines of scrimmage. But it's difficult to envision the Hoosiers suddenly pulling away from a team of USC's caliber. The Trojans have a veteran quarterback in Jayden Maiava who can keep his team in the game. Pick: USC +7.5
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
USC will cover the +7.5 spread against Indiana
Possible · Within days
Indiana will win the game outright
Possible · Within days
Open Questions
- Who will start at quarterback for Indiana against USC?
- Will USC remain in the CFP rankings if they win?
- Can USC's defense contain Indiana's physical running game and receiver tandem?
