Why is Russia managing to attack Ukraine harder now? Here is the analysis

1. Russia seems to be succeeding in attacking Ukraine harder now than in a long time, why then?

War has never been static. New technology, tactical considerations and weather conditions are constantly changing warfare. At the beginning of the full-scale invasion, drones were hardly used at all – now they dominate the war. Since last spring, Russia has systematically attacked Ukraine also with robots, noticeably in particular over Kiev. Shahed drones with a jet engine have also been introduced on an increasingly large scale, which then acquire the characteristics of a cruise missile, but at a significantly lower cost.

Unlike drones and cruise robots, which Ukraine most often shoots down, the air defense cannot parry the fast and powerful ballistic robots.

In July alone, Russia fired at least 126 such robots at Ukraine, more than in any other single month during the war. They almost always hit: the statistics have been so discouraging for Ukraine that in August the military stopped making public how many ballistic missiles Russia sends each day. Such information has previously been openly reported.

The most effective way to neutralize a ballistic missile is with a Patriot anti-aircraft robot, or similar system.

2. What is so remarkable about Patriot, and what alternatives are there?

The US Patriot air defense system can shoot back incoming ballistic missiles with high precision. The system was developed in the 1980s and is still one of the world's most efficient.

But if it tastes good, it costs - the price tag for a Patriot robot is SEK 30 million, and as a rule two are used against each attacking missile. Shooting down several dozen attacking robots during a Russian attack is therefore very costly.

Since the war in Iran broke out, the US's own stock of Patriots has been greatly reduced. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi already pointed out at the beginning of March that during the first three days of the Iran war, the US used around 800 Patriot missiles, far more than Ukraine had access to during the entire war of invasion.

The US stocks are now so small that the US does not want to spare them to Ukraine. A promise by President Donald Trump to allow Ukraine to license manufacture the Patriot instead was soon withdrawn, but discussions have now resumed, according to Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

However, setting up such a production takes several years. Two other countries license the Patriot: For Japan, it took three years from agreement to production, and Germany, which signed a license in 2024, does not yet have any German-made Patriots.

But there are alternatives to the Patriot: in Europe through the Franco-Italian system SAMP/T, which is often described as sophisticated. However, this is not a quick solution either. Ukraine is also developing its own Freyja air defense system in cooperation with nine other countries and defense industry companies. A prototype may be ready in the next year, but it will take some time before Freyja can be produced in any larger volumes.

3. What is Ukraine doing in the short term, Russian attacks happen almost daily?

The situation is desperate. Zelensky rarely misses an opportunity to ask the outside world for help. Only in the last few days in his talks with the Norwegian government, in connection with a visit to Oslo due to King Harald V's funeral.

The only possibility for Ukraine to quickly get protection against the missiles is through other countries' existing stocks, Vadym Kushnikov emphasizes for DN. He is an analyst and co-founder of the Ukrainian site Militarnyi, which monitors the defense sector. The EU recently tried to increase the pressure on Greece to share, discussions are also held with Israel.

In the meantime, Ukraine is now signing agreements with a number of European partners for the delivery of 1,000 Patriot missiles - but even here the delivery time is long.

Another tactic is to disrupt Russian missile production, but to attack key locations, Ukraine needs access to Starlink over Russian territory, something Ukraine has so far not had.

4. How long can Russia continue at this rate?

Russia has a production capacity of at least 1,000 ballistic missiles per year, according to Ukrainian experts; well above US Patriot production of around 600. European production of the SAMP/T is even lower.

Ukraine assesses that Russia has the capacity to continue the war at least through 2028, according to the head of Ukraine's military intelligence service, Oleh Ivashthenko.