Denmark's security police warned on Wednesday that Russia is going to greater lengths to destabilize the country. It was the newspaper Berlingske that reported that individuals, "ordinary Danes", had been contacted through social media and offered assignments for payment.
At first glance, the assignments can be seen as harmless, the security police warned PET. After that, the assignments risk intensifying, says Gazmend Huskaj, PhD and security policy researcher affiliated with Stockholm University and director of the global cyber and security policy program at the Geneva Center for Security Policy (GCSP) in Geneva.
- It is a recruitment ladder that exists both in the real world and in the cyber world. It can start with being asked to take a picture of a gate. Then you answer yes and get some money. Then the picture-taking escalates to the level that the picture has become criminal. And everything is documented, says Huskaj.
Russia's operators can use this against the recruit, he continues:
- To now start taking pictures of defense equipment, military bases and so on.
For Russia, it doesn't matter if the recruit gets caught or not, says Huskaj.
- They are so-called "expendables", what Säpo calls expendable agents. They are used once to commit an act, and if they get caught, it doesn't really matter because there is no real cost to Russia. The executor usually does not know who the client is, and it is precisely this ignorance that makes the method useful for Russia.
Recruitment often takes place in open Telegram channels where anonymous Russian contacts post ads for paid assignments, says Huskaj. Whoever answers then receives instructions in a private chat.
- Since this is an open environment where you can go in and watch channels, people who are often in need of money end up in a greater risk zone. It can be about criminals, people with addictions or people in some form of dependency who need money more than others, he says.
Even young people or Russian speakers in Europe, who are easy to reach, are vulnerable groups.
How do you see the risk of people in Sweden being recruited by Russian actors?
- It is very difficult to assess the risk as high, medium or low, says Huskaj.
The online recruitment is often aimed at countries that carry out defense deliveries to Ukraine, he says.
Both Denmark and Germany, which this week singled out Russia for hybrid attacks against the country, fall into this category.
- Sweden fulfills the conditions that made other countries targets, says Huskaj.
Säpo's chief operating officer Fredrik Hallström said in March that Russian agents had mapped protective values in Sweden.
- Sweden has industries that supply defense equipment to Ukraine, and the government's recently published intelligence strategy precisely describes that foreign powers use proxies controlled from abroad. The strategy also says that the intelligence service should become more open to the public, so we will likely see Swedish cases reported in the same way as PET now does, says Huskaj.
According to Säpo, the Russian threat to Sweden is unchanged.
- We have no corresponding message from our side. But I cannot go into exactly what we see in our intelligence work, says Säpo's press spokesperson Jonathan Svensson to TT.
The phenomenon is a serious threat that places demands on the various national authorities in each country, says Huskaj.
- If you look at the shift from reconnaissance to physical sabotage, and from agents who were controlled from the embassies to agents who are recruited online, there are signs that the pressure is increasing on the Russian side. It may be an explanation for the fact that the operations against countries that support Ukraine have escalated and are likely to increase in intensity.
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