
AI-generated summary
After the Tidö government took office four years ago, Sweden's defense has been described as a 'pocket-sized defence' by analysts, with only one and a half brigades equipped and manned. The goal is to have ready brigades only by 2030. The Home Guard, with 22,000 men, has been given responsibility for Sweden's entire area of 450,000 square kilometers, despite a lack of training, weapons and numbers.
The most important part of the Swedish ground defense are the brigades. Today, despite all previous promises from the politicians, we only have one and a half brigades equipped and barely manned. 2030 is the new time horizon for completed brigades. When the Tidö government took office four years ago, it assumed what analysts described as a pocket-sized defense and that has not changed since.
Apart from the fact that there are significant delays in getting the few units ready, it is unclear what their tasks are, but all statements from the government and the Armed Forces show that they are not primarily for Sweden, but that they are intended mainly for eastern Finland, the Baltic countries and possibly Poland.
With what then shall we defend our own country? The answer from both politicians and the Armed Forces is that it ends up on the Home Guard, which should have the "territorial responsibility for the whole of Sweden" (Armed Forces website).
The Home Guard, with its 22,000 men, is thus supposed to defend the country's 450,000 square kilometers, which appears to be completely ridiculous. The Home Guard is important through its local knowledge and popular roots, but has neither the training, weapons or numbers to meet and beat an attacker.
With the new defense doctrine, operations in NATO's forces abroad must have priority over the defense of one's own country. In addition to the Home Guard, politicians have talked about creating "territorial units", which will supplement the Home Guard but primarily be used to secure the transit of foreign forces through Sweden for deployment in Finland and the Baltics. These "territorial associations" still exist only on paper.
The fact that Sweden is without its own territorial defense is something that the government and opposition talk about quietly and do not want any attention about. One of the few debaters who pointed out the lack of discussion about the big and decisive security policy issues is Anne-Marie Pålsson who in Sydsvenskan on August 18 pointed out that the security policy was not included before the election and that "it is as if we have nothing to do with them".
One of the most important questions should be who will defend Sweden. For NATO to come to the rescue, both consensus among 32 states is required and that they are then prepared to send military aid and not just diplomatic or civilian support. That the US will stand up is highly uncertain.
If we were to receive military support, the Swedish government will have minimal influence on how and where the war is waged. It is decided instead in Washington, Berlin, London and Paris based on the self-interests of these powers.
Finland has made it clear that such "guarantees" can never be relied upon and has therefore maintained a strong territorial defense. Sweden should come to the same realization.
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AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Sweden will not have fully equipped and manned brigades until after 2030 unless significant increases in resources take place.
Likely · Within years
The debate about Sweden's territorial defense will increase if the security situation in the Baltic Sea region deteriorates further.
Possible · Within months
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