In just a few years, Sweden and France have become close military allies.
It is not only because Sweden has joined NATO. But also that France, under Emmanuel Macron's leadership, has taken on an increasingly important role in the defense of Europe.
Donald Trump's erratic actions - especially during the Greenland crisis - have caused European governments to doubt the US's security guarantees, and some of them, not least in the Nordic countries, have begun to turn their eyes towards the EU's only nuclear power.
The French nuclear weapons program has long been autonomous and separate from NATO's joint planning. But in March this year, President Emmanuel Macron opened up about sharing the country's deterrence capabilities, as part of strengthening the "European pillar" of NATO.
The nuclear doctrine that Macron presented at the time is called "delayed deterrence" and means that nuclear-armed Rafale planes can be placed in other countries - closer to Russia.
However, France retains full control over when and how the weapons are used.
In Sweden's case, it is not relevant to have nuclear weapons on Swedish soil in peacetime.
But if there is a war, it cannot be ruled out, Defense Minister Pål Jonson (M) has said.
Sweden, together with seven other countries, has started a dialogue with France about cooperation on the country's nuclear weapons. It gives weight to the other military cooperation, which is also deepening rapidly.
French Rafale planes armed with nuclear bombs could be in Sweden in 6–8 hours in the event of war, if Sweden wants it. During his visit to Stockholm on Monday, Macron emphasized that the Swedish purchase of four French frigates also has a direct bearing on this nuclear weapons dimension.
- The frigates give Sweden increased air defense capability with a long range at sea and against ballistic missiles. It strengthens the deferred deterrence, Macron said.
During his more than nine years in power, he has constantly argued for a common, European defense that is more independent from the United States - and it is clear that Macron sees nuclear weapons as the key.
Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson emphasized, however, that for Sweden, the nuclear weapons dialogue is so far only about information exchange and discussions about possible joint exercises. The door is kept open, but the Swedish government does not seem to be in a hurry in this particular area.
Maybe it's not so strange.
There is still no broad political consensus in France on the new nuclear doctrine.
After Macron presented it last spring, 59 percent of the French said they were in favor of protecting other EU countries with nuclear weapons. But four out of ten were skeptical – and many of them can be found on the far right.
The right-wing nationalist Marine Le Pen is the favorite to win the presidential election in April next year. She has criticized Macron's initiative and labeled it a "publicity coup" that is not in the nation's interest. She also wants France to leave NATO's joint command structure - and argued as recently as April 2022 for a "strategic rapprochement" with Russia.
It hardly needs to be said that the military cooperation between France and Sweden could become complicated if she wins.
Even the left-wing radical Jean-Luc Mélenchon – second in the polls – is skeptical of NATO. He views the alliance as a tool to increase US influence in Europe and wants France to leave it entirely. It could lead to Mélenchon keeping France out of an armed conflict between NATO and Russia - even if a country like Sweden is attacked.
Other presidential candidates in next year's election are pushing a security policy line more in line with Macron's. For example, the center-right politician Édouard Philippe and the center-left candidate Raphaël Glucksmann.
But it is only after next year's elections that we will know where France is actually heading in terms of security policy.
