Victorian Premier Ben Carroll warns One Nation 'terrifies me' ahead of state election

Victorian Premier Ben Carroll has declared "One Nation terrifies me" as he escalated the state Labor party's warning about the prospect of the Coalition governing with Pauline Hanson's party after November's state election.

One Nation has recently won seats in by-elections, first in the federal NSW seat of Farrer and in the WA state seat of Secret Harbour.

The rise of Senator Hanson's party has been seen as a warning shot fired across both sides of the political divide as Labor and the Coalition struggle in opinion polls.

Since becoming Victoria's premier in July, Mr Carroll has used the possibility of a Coalition-One Nation government as a central plank of Labor's campaign for re-election, particularly as support for the minor party has surged in the state.

"I will fight every day against the Liberal Party and One Nation coming together, because that is what will happen in November if Labor is not successful," Mr Carroll told 7.30.

Asked if he was worried about One Nation's rise, Mr Carroll admitted the prospect "terrifies him".

"[The] Liberal Party and One Nation teaming together … they're about attacking working people. I'm about fighting for them."

Carroll accused of 'fear campaign'

While Mr Carroll was concerned about One Nation, that was not the case for Victorian Liberal leader Jess Wilson.

"I'm not really interested in the other parties," Ms Wilson told 7.30.

"I am running to win majority government at this election because I know that we have the plan to fix Victoria, and I know the only way to do that is to achieve majority government."

Ms Wilson said she had not spoken to One Nation Victorian leader Warren Pickering and urged voters to "fix this state" by voting for the Coalition.

7.30 approached One Nation for comment, but they did not respond.

The competing pitches have sharpened the battle lines with just over two months until election day.

Redbridge insights adviser Kristy McSweeney — who is a former political advisor and contested the 2022 federal election as the Liberal candidate for the Western Australian seat of Swan — said Mr Carroll was ramping up his One Nation warnings to specifically target disillusioned Labor voters who were considering switching their vote.

"He's going for a fear campaign due to Labor's very low primary vote and Labor trailing those two parties consistently over polls the last six months, including post his leadership change as the third party among Liberal, Labor and One Nation," Ms McSweeney said.

Recent Redbridge polling shows the scale of One Nation's rise.

Its latest survey of almost 2,400 Victorian voters conducted earlier this month put the Coalition on 29 per cent, One Nation on 25 per cent and Labor on 24 per cent of the primary vote.

Ms McSweeney said Labor's warnings were particularly aimed at voters in Melbourne's west, where the party's traditional support base was frustrated that infrastructure had failed to keep pace with rapid population growth.

"It is a pitch to them to say, 'If you switch from Labor, you will get a One Nation-Liberal Coalition and that represents a lot of things that you don't like in multicultural communities out there on the peri-urban fringe," she said.

Could 'the red wall' fall?

Melbourne's outer west is traditionally a safe Labor area and known as the 'Red Wall'.

The region includes the seat of Melton — the nation's fastest growing local government area — as well as suburbs like Sunbury and Werribee, where Labor has built a strong base among migrant, working-class and first-home-buying communities.

Melton is held by Labor on a 4.6 per cent margin, but the once-safe seat is showing signs of vulnerability after more than three decades in Labor hands.

It was closely watched at the 2022 Victorian election when it was the only seat in the state to swing against Labor, and is now more vulnerable with long-standing Labor member, Stephen McGhie retiring at this election.

There are other concerns too. There have been delays to some infrastructure builds in the area, including the electrification of the Melton train line.

While Ms McSweeney said that Labor faced challenges, she also said voters were starting to have concerns about One Nation policy.

"A lot of people are saying, 'I'm starting to look at One Nation's policies for Victoria and I can't see what they're going to do for Victoria'," she said.