The election for the government of Pará in 2026 left a contradiction on the state's political board: while former governor Helder Barbalho (MDB) demonstrated strength by being elected senator and also pulling his ally Chicão (União Brasil) for the 2nd place in Brasília, his project of continuity in the Government Palace suffered a turnaround.
The current governor and former candidate for re-election, Hana Ghassan (MDB), who took office after Helder left to run for the Senate, was defeated in the 1st round by Dr. Daniel Santos (Podemos). With 97.46% of the ballots counted, the former mayor of Ananindeua was elected with 2,303,759 votes (51.75%), more than 250 thousand votes ahead of the emedebista, who had 2,052,759 votes (46.11%).
Hana's defeat exposes a challenge for Helder Barbalho's group: the size of a leader's political strength does not, in itself, guarantee the election of his successor.
g1 listened to experts to identify the main factors that contributed to Hana's defeat. Among the reasons are:
Electorate in large cities: the strength of the political structure and local allies built by Helder remained in the smaller municipalities, where Hana won in the majority, but the electorate in the large electoral colleges overwhelmingly opted for Dr. Daniel.
Difficulty in building your own identity: Hana took office in April 2026 and had a short period to present herself to the electorate with autonomy.
Rise of Dr. Daniel as "anti-barbalist": former mayor of Ananindeua established himself as an antagonistic pole and led to central debates in the campaign.
Possible strategic error in the national alliance: despite being part of Lula's alliance and receiving public support from the president, Hana had little visual and political association with the president during the campaign, according to analysts. Meanwhile, Daniel approached Flávio Bolsonaro (PL).
Political wear and tear and the search for alternation: the permanence of the same political group in power for almost 10 years generated natural wear and tear, fueling the perception of concentration of power.
On the left, Hana Ghassan and Helder Barbalho; on the right, Dr Daniel Santos. — Photo: Ascom Hana Ghassan / Ascom Ananindeua
Although the election for the government of Pará was decided in the 1st round, Dr. Daniel's political movement in the state continues. On Monday (19), he should participate in an event with Flávio in Marabá, in an attempt to reinforce the candidate's platform in a state where Lula received the most votes in the 1st round.
On another front, Helder Barbalho continues to reaffirm his support for Lula in the presidential race: “I respect divergent positions, but I make a point of making mine clear,” he stated in a post on social media.
Hana Ghassan will continue to lead the government of Pará until December 31st. After the defeat, the governor stated on Thursday (15) that she intends to lead the transition to the next administration in a "democratic, peaceful and transparent" manner.
From the 'stage' in the countryside to the polls in big cities
Data from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) show that Hana Ghassan emerged victorious in the majority of the 144 municipalities in Pará, winning in 80 of them (places with fewer voters). However, Dr. Daniel obtained better performances in the state's large electoral colleges, such as Belém and Ananindeua, cities in the metropolitan region.
Analysts explain that there is different electoral behavior between the interior and urban centers. In smaller municipalities, the strength of the "traditional platform" predominates, which are political agreements with mayors, councilors and regional leaders. In large cities, the electorate is more influenced by public debate, social networks, media exposure and complaints about public services.
For professor Gustavo Ribeiro (UFPA), this geographic design reveals the difference between the strength of the "traditional platform" and the autonomy of the urban electorate.
"What former governor Helder Barbalho managed to do was organize a large base of support for his government, which continued during the Hana period. The construction of the platform remained firm in the smaller cities. But you have an electorate in the largest cities that tends to have a certain independence from local disputes", analyzes Ribeiro.
In Ananindeua, the second largest city in the state, Daniel had a positive assessment of municipal management, which, according to analysts, may also have influenced his victory in cities in the metropolitan region of Belém.
Lack of 'own brand'
Unlike other names supported by Helder Barbalho in recent elections, such as Igor Normando in Belém City Hall or Chicão in the Senate race, Hana Ghassan faced the need to build her "own brand" during the electoral campaign.
A cousin of the former governor, Normando, for example, was secretary of Citizenship Articulation (SEAC) in the Helder government before becoming a candidate for mayor. The main brand of his management and campaign in 2024 was Usinas da Paz, important places that house free leisure, sports and professional training services for the population in peripheral neighborhoods. He was elected with 56.38% of the votes, beating Eder Mauro (PL).
As vice-governor, Hana held prominent positions in state management, such as the presidency of the COP 30 Committee, a global conference held in November 2025 in Belém, and taking over the government in April 2026 after Helder's disqualification, but she still needed to present herself to the general public.
"There is a very specific difference between someone like Chicão or Igor Normando and Governor Hana. Chicão and Igor had their own political brands, which they were able to add to the campaign. In the case of Hana, the support did not count on this aspect. It is different that you have to present the candidate, build her public reputation from the point of view of the electorate and make her win the succession. It is more difficult", explains Gustavo Ribeiro.
Political scientist Rodolfo Marques also points out difficulties in consolidating an electoral identity. He highlights four factors: the difficulty of building one's own political identity; "natural" wear and tear of a political group in power for almost 10 years; Daniel's ability to present a "competitive alternative"; and the right's articulation to overcome "barbalism".
"Hana took over the government in April 2026 and had a short period to present herself to the electorate as a leader capable of commanding the State with relative autonomy", he states.
From internal ally to 'anti-barbalism' pole
Known for his pragmatic profile, Helder built a broad and diverse hegemony in Pará, sheltering parties and leaders from the left, center and right on his allied base. But, in political science, scenarios of strong concentration of power tend to generate a tendency towards bipolarization.
"The Helder government and its political group established themselves as a major pole of Pará politics. The antagonistic pole that, due to the dynamics of the system, would appear at some point was missing. And Dr. Daniel proved to be more competent to present himself in relation to this. He consolidated himself as anti-barbalism", says professor Gustavo Ribeiro.
That's where Dr. Daniel Santos' trajectory comes in. A 40-year-old doctor, he began his career in Helder's own group. He was state deputy president of Alepa and was elected mayor of Ananindeua in 2020 with direct support from Barbalho.
Dr. Daniel and Helder Barbalho: from allies to adversaries — Photo: Arte g1
"Daniel's trajectory is one of the most interesting aspects of this election. It shows how a leadership that emerges within a given coalition can build its own autonomy. He broke with Helder's group and began to occupy an opposition space that he was able to expand, because he already knew the political dynamics", points out Rodolfo Marques.
“Daniel ended up building a center for reorganizing the opposition in Pará,” says Marques.
Opposition agenda and error in the national alliance
In addition to articulating the support of sectors of the right, agribusiness and supporters of Bolsonarism, Dr. Daniel managed to bring themes that directly affected Helder's management to the center of the campaign.
Among the main points explored in the campaign were criticisms of the water supply concession (Águas do Pará) and the charging of tolls on state highways - both policies implemented during Helder's government.
Experts also point out a "strategic error" in the government campaign regarding the use of national alliances.
Although Lula was the most voted presidential candidate in Pará, Hana had little visual and political association with the president during the campaign, according to analysts. One of the few exceptions was a rally at Praça da República, in Belém, in which Hana reinforced the partnership between Lula and Helder; and Lula's support for her candidacy.
"Governor Hana put all her eggs in the bucket of supporting former governor Helder Barbalho. There was a tremendous strategic error for a state in which President Lula obtained more votes than the opposition electorate: she did not try to get closer to President Lula's campaign", analyzes Gustavo Ribeiro.
"If I had managed to attract more of Lula's electorate, the result could have been different", he adds.
The limits of political capital
Despite the setback at the Government Palace, analysts consider that the results of the polls do not mean the definitive collapse of the Barbalhos' influence in Pará, but demonstrate the limits of the automatic transfer of votes.
"I do not interpret the result as a rejection of Helder Barbalho, but as a sign that political capital, whoever it is, has its own limits", concludes Rodolfo Marques.
Dr. Daniel assumes the Government of Pará on January 6, 2027, with Ellayne de Almeida (Podemos), conservative leader in the western region of the state, as his deputy. Among the first acts announced is the termination of the sanitation concession contract in the state.
