Voters in Alaska, Florida and California will go to the polls on Tuesday to determine which candidates will run in the November midterm elections when control of Congress is at stake.
Alaska's unusual Senate primary, in particular, could serve as a preview of the most competitive Senate races, as incumbent Republican Senator Dan S. Sullivan and Democratic challenger Mary Peltola will be on the same nonpartisan ballot.
Democrats need to pick up at least four seats from Republicans to win control of the 100-seat chamber, and analysts view Alaska as one of their strongest opportunities.
Florida's primary election, by contrast, is likely to bolster Republicans' chances of maintaining control of the House, as it will be the first election since the state approved a new district map that is expected to net them up to four seats.
Here are five developments to watch:
Will Democrats find an opening in Alaska?
The last time Alaska had a Democrat in the U.S. Senate was 2014, when Mark Begich was defeated by Republican Dan S. Sullivan. Now they have a chance to win that seat back.
Democrat Mary Peltola, a moderate who held the state's single House seat from 2022 through 2024, is likely to do well enough in the state's unusual nonpartisan primary to advance to the November general election.
The state's "ranked choice" voting system could allow her to pick up support from independents and centrists, boosting her party's odds of gaining control of the Senate.
Sullivan has an additional problem: Voters may be confused by a Republican challenger by the name of Dan J. Sullivan who is also on the ballot.
Democratic Socialists of America sees Florida opportunity
The intraparty Democratic battle between centrists and left-wing democratic socialists has played out over several states this year, with varying results. Now it is coming to Florida.
Oliver Larkin, an activist endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America, is facing moderate Democratic Representative Jared Moskowitz in a battle for the party's nomination in the 25th Congressional District, which covers a swath of coastline north of Miami.
Larkin, who worked for progressive Senator Bernie Sanders' 2016 presidential campaign, backs a national $25 per hour minimum wage, up from the current $7.25, and other DSA planks like "Medicare for All." He is also calling for structural changes, such as eliminating the Electoral College, which determines winners of the U.S. presidency, and ending the Senate's supermajority requirement, though he would not have a direct role in that effort.
Moskowitz, who is running for the first time in this district, works occasionally with Republicans as a member of the Problem Solvers' Caucus.
Will Debbie Wasserman Schultz survive redistricting?
Florida Republicans redrew their state's congressional map last spring to tilt the table in their favor and stand to pick up as many as four seats from Democrats in November.
Among their targets was Representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz, first elected to the U.S. House in 2004, who opted to run in another district to avoid certain defeat in her existing one, which was redrawn to favor Republicans.
She is running in the 20th Congressional District, which has a significant Black population and for decades has been represented by Black members.
Her rivals include several Black candidates, including rapper Luther "Uncle Luke" Campbell; ex-Representative Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, who is battling criminal charges over alleged theft of disaster relief funds; Elijah Manley, a progressive activist, and Dale Holness, a former local official who has run for the seat twice before.
Israel lobby tests its influence again
A special election to fill a vacant House seat in California is being dominated by Democratic Party infighting over Israel's conduct of the Gaza war.
The American Israel Public Affairs Committee, a pro-Israel group, is spending heavily to defeat Aisha Wahab, a Muslim state senator who is an Afghan American.
AIPAC, a powerful lobbying group which has nonetheless lost some contests this year, has thrown its weight behind Melissa Hernandez, who heads the San Francisco area transit system.
AIPAC is also hoping to help get Moskowitz across the finish line in Tuesday's Florida primary.
Trump’s influence tested in Florida governor race
Trump is backing Republican Representative Byron Donalds' bid to become the governor of Florida, succeeding term-limited Republican Governor Ron DeSantis, who has sometimes tangled with Trump.
Recent polling indicates that a Donalds win on Tuesday could put him in a tight November election against ex-Representative David Jolly if he wins the Democratic primary. Jolly is a former Republican.
