
PIMCO、贝恩资本等警告AI估值过高,高盛、摩根士丹利、黑石等保持乐观
华尔街对AI风险看法分歧:PIMCO、贝恩资本、橡树资本等高管警告AI领域存在泡沫风险,估值过高;高盛、摩根士丹利、黑石等银行高管则保持乐观,认为AI是重大经济转型。
AI-generated summary
部分华尔街知名执行长谈及AI交易可能带来的巨额获利,但一些重量级资产管理人对AI热潮的风险发出警告。PIMCO执行长罗马在香港国际金融领袖投资峰会上表示,AI相关融资规模未来5年可能增至约10兆美元,最终达到过度水平。
儘管部分華爾街赫赫有名的執行長大談人工智慧(AI)交易可能帶來的鉅額獲利,一些重量級資產管理人卻對AI熱潮的風險發出警告。品浩(PIMCO)執行長羅曼(Emmanuel Roman)與貝恩資本(Bain Capital)董事長康諾頓(John Connaughton)即警告說,AI領域在歷經飛速擴張後,出現泡沫風險,最終熱潮將消退。
彭博報導,羅曼3日在香港舉行的國際金融領袖投資峰會上表示,AI相關的融資規模未來5年可能增至約10兆美元,最終達到過度水準。
他說,「到了某一時刻,熱潮一定消退,接著就會爆出問題」。他補充,任何因素,比如美國升息、中東戰爭或歐元區危機都可能引發AI交易暴跌。
貝恩的康諾頓表示,「泡沫一定會破裂,我們認為目前估值非常高,不過AI的真正問題在於,能否從這樣的估值獲得收益」。
橡樹資本管理(Oaktree Capital)共同主席馬克斯(Howard Marks)也指出,市場對AI已浮現質疑,AI是一項「過度擁擠的交易」。資本集團(Capital Group)的強森(Jody Jonsson)則說,AI企業的預期與實際採用速度之間存在落差。
不過,面對急於籌資的超大規模雲端服務商帶來的龐大潛在業務,一些華爾街銀行大老論調明顯樂觀。
高盛集團執行長所羅門(David Solomon)談到這波科技「超級週期」時說,「路途難免顛簸」。他補充,儘管短期間波動,但資本市場仍然活絡,「投資人仍關注AI與算力需求的走勢,而資本市場也對相關需求做出回應」。
摩根士丹利執行長皮克(Ted Pick)指出,AI領域的資本支出可能達10兆至15兆美元的規模,鞏固其作為網路問世以來,最重大經濟轉型的地位。
黑石集團總裁格雷(Jon Gray)也表達樂觀看法。他說,「目前出現相關質疑或許是健康的」。他補充,更廣泛的AI趨勢意謂更多投資,以及大幅增加的資本需求。
他說,「現在發生的事影響非常深遠,如果低估即將來臨的生產力提升,以及消費者與企業的轉變,將是一個錯誤」。
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
AI相关融资规模未来5年可能增至约10兆美元
Possible · Within years

The U.S. midterm elections are counting, and the Republican Party is likely to suffer a crushing defeat. Nasdaq futures plunged more than 1.86%, and Taiwanese stocks turned from red to black, fluctuating nearly 800 points. According to legal analysis, if Trump is defeated, the short-term market may be worried about increasing AI supervision, and technology and AI stocks will be under pressure. Foreign investors have sold more than Taiwanese stocks by 1.2 trillion in October, and funds may return to technology stocks after the election.
PC manufacturers such as HP, Asus, and Acer are transferring some of their production capacity from Southeast Asia back to mainland China. The AI boom has led to a tight supply of memory chips and a sharp increase in material costs. China's complete electronics industry chain, efficient production capabilities and manufacturing talent advantages have become prominent. Data from the Ministry of Commerce show that in the first three quarters of this year, more than 6,300 foreign-funded companies made additional investments in China, and investment in high-tech industries increased by 33.8%.

Nittobo's stock price plunged nearly 7%, dragging Taiwan Glass (1802)'s stock price from red to black. After opening at 69.6 yuan, the selling pressure came out. As of 9:38, it fell 0.3 yuan to 67.4 yuan, with a trading volume of more than 110,000 contracts. The legal person advises investors not to chase high prices and keep cash in hand to maintain profits.

Danish biotech company Genmab's three cancer drugs petosemtamab, Rina-S and Epkinly have successively achieved positive results in phase 3 clinical trials. The combination of petosemtamab and Keytruda reduced the risk of death in head and neck cancer patients by 50%, driving the company's stock price to double in just three months, and rose 48% in a single week last week.

Luckin Coffee announced its financial report for the third quarter of 2026, with total net income of 17.891 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.0%; non-GAAP net profit of 2.145 billion yuan, a record high in a single quarter; GAAP operating profit of 2.756 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55.1%. The average number of monthly transaction customers is 123 million, and the total number of stores worldwide is 38,909. The company launched a one-year share repurchase plan totaling US$500 million.

The reporter visited a number of mass-market snack stores and general supermarkets and tested dozens of products such as instant noodles, beverages, potato chips, and melon seeds. It was found that although some mass-market snack stores attract consumers with low prices, the converted unit price of small-packaged goods exceeds that in supermarkets. The premium in the retail area is up to 60%, which involves issues of consumers' right to know and fair trade.