Tonight in Brussels many eyes will be turned west. Even if the midterm elections in the United States are primarily about domestic American issues: Donald Trump has proven more than once in the past two years that his decisions also influence the everyday lives of Europeans.
The chaos surrounding tariffs, which represent a powerful damper especially for German industry, and the rising prices for food and fuel as a direct result of the war in Iran are probably the most obvious examples.
Worry about Trump's anger after election defeat
"There is great hope in Brussels that, with other majorities, a course correction will soon prevail again in transatlantic relations," says Rasmus Andresen, MEP and member of the US delegation to the EU Parliament.
But alongside hope, there is also caution. A good result for the Democrats could trigger anger in the US President, which could particularly affect the EU, fears the Chairman of the Trade Committee in the EU Parliament, Bernd Lange. The SPD politician expects that the Trump administration could revive the trade conflict that has been dormant for months after the midterms.
Tariffs on European medicines and machinery are a serious scenario. Then the EU would have to react again. With Trump there will be neither security nor planning, Lange makes clear: "That's why we have to continue to take this clear line against Trump as an EU."
More trust in the courts than in Congress
In the past two years, Trump has based his trade policy on so-called executive orders. Congress let him do it. However, the Democrats would hardly be able to reverse Trump's already imposed tariffs, even if they had a majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. The powers of the US President and his power through regulations are too far-reaching.
Lange, as well as other MEPs and representatives of the EU Commission, secretly have more hope in the US courts, which have already declared a large part of the tariffs to be illegal.
The same could happen with further tariffs, for which Trump is citing older laws from 1930, 1962 and 1974. However, courts must decide whether the US government is interpreting these laws legally.
Even more erratic foreign policy?
When it comes to defense issues, some EU member states fear that Trump could unload his frustration on NATO allies. The US President can, for example, decide to withdraw troops from Europe, which have been a security guarantee for decades.
In May, the US Department of Defense announced that it would withdraw 5,000 soldiers from Germany. This could become clearer in December. Then the report on the US troop presence will be presented.
Here too, the Europeans urge caution. After a bitter defeat, Trump could perhaps become even more erratic because he wants to use foreign policy to distract from the loss of domestic power, says the President of the Hertie School, Daniela Schwarzer.
Congress did not authorize the Iran war
“Of course, the House and Senate also have opportunities to influence foreign policy through laws and resolutions,” says Schwarzer. But it has become clear that Trump ignores this.
Last but not least, there is intense speculation in US reporting about what the US will do next in Iran. So far, Congress has not authorized this war.
The bottom line is: A Democratically dominated Congress could limit Trump's domestic policy. The worst fears in Brussels are that he could then unload his frustration on foreign policy.
