White Sox vs. Guardians prediction, odds, time: 2026 MLB ALDS Game 5 picks from advanced model

A spot in the American League Championship Series is on the line when the Chicago White Sox battle the Cleveland Guardians in Game 5 of the ALDS on Saturday night. Cleveland evened the series with a 9-5 win on Thursday. The White Sox (84-78), who finished second in the AL Central, are 38-45 on the road in 2026, including the postseason. The Guardians (85-77), who won the AL Central, are 41-42 at home. Chicago is expected to start right-hander Sean Burke (11-7, 3.34 ERA), while Cleveland is expected to counter with right-hander Gavin Williams (14-8, 3.76 ERA).

First pitch from Progressive Field in Cleveland is set for 8 p.m. ET. The White Sox are 9-8 versus the Guardians over the 2026 regular and postseason. Cleveland is a -142 favorite on the money line (risk $142 to win $100) in the latest White Sox vs. Guardians odds, while the over/under is 7. The Over has hit in six of the last seven matchups between the teams.

SportsLine's model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times and enters the divisional round of the 2026 MLB playoffs on a 31-25 run on all top-rated MLB money-line picks at betting sites, returning more than $900 for $100 players. Anyone following its picks at MLB betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on White Sox vs. Guardians and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Guardians vs. White Sox:

After 10,000 simulations of White Sox vs. Guardians, the model is going Over 7 combined runs for over/under betting. The Over is 11-6 across the 17 matchups between the teams this season. It hit in Game 4, and the Over has connected in six of their last seven meetings overall. Also, no team has leaned over as much as Chicago this season, with the Over posting a 98-68-2 record.

Thus, the Over has hit for the White Sox in six more games than any other team in the 2026 MLB season. The model projects both teams to score over 4.0 runs on average. With that, the teams combine for 8.5 total runs, giving value to the Over.

After simulating every pitch of Guardians vs. White Sox 10,000 times, the model also says one side of the money line has all the value.