Who's to blame for Dodgers' shocking NLCS letdown? Five places to point fingers

The Milwaukee Brewers are one win away from the second pennant in franchise history and their first as a National League team. The Brewers were still in the American League when they went to the World Series in 1982. This also means the Los Angeles Dodgers are one loss away from elimination, and seeing their shot at becoming baseball's first threepeat champion since the 1998-2000 New York Yankees come to an end. The Brewers have a commanding 3-0 lead in the NLCS.

"I don't need to tell them anything. We don't change anything. There's nothing to change," Brewers manager Pat Murphy said after the Game 3 win. "The Dodgers are, like I've mentioned, an incredible team that's won back-to-back championships. You think they're not good enough to come back and win a game against us or come back and play well? I know how good they are. Our guys know how good they are. Our guys know what we're up against."

Murphy is correct. As bad as the Dodgers have looked this series -- as old as the Dodgers have looked this series -- they are plenty good enough to come back and win the NLCS. It is likely? Heavens no. But the Brewers don't want to give this talented, battle-tested Dodgers team an opening. Lose Game 4 on Thursday, and suddenly you're looking at Tarik Skubal in Game 5 and Yoshinobu Yamamoto in Game 6. Anything can happen in a Game 7. That right there is L.A.'s path to an NLCS comeback.

"It's certainly possible. I've lived it," Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said about the possibility of a 3-0 comeback. "I think the thing is that our guys have been battle-tested, as was that team I was a part of. I think the mindset has to be -- teams have been down before 0-2, 0-3 -- it's just you've got to win tomorrow. It's an elimination game. We've played in a lot of elimination games. We've just got to get a win. We've got to find a way to build some momentum, and it takes all of us."

Only one team in baseball history -- Roberts' 2004 Boston Red Sox -- has overcome a 3-0 deficit in a best-of-seven series. Not only has the team that has taken a 3-0 lead won the series 41 times in 42 tries, there have also been 32 sweeps. Only 10 teams even forced a Game 5. There is no doubt about it, the Dodgers are the longest of longshots to extend the NLCS, nevermind win it. Who is to blame for the team's current situation? There's plenty of blame to go around, so let's assign it, shall we?

1. The Brewers

We have to start here. The Dodgers are down 3-0 in the NLCS because the Brewers have outplayed them in every phase of the game. The Brewers have gotten better starting pitching. Their bullpen has been better. Their defense and baserunning have been better. Their offense has been better at both stringing together hits to build a rally and launching the ball out of the park. Murphy has out-managed Roberts as well. You name it, and the Brewers have done it better than the Dodgers this series.

"It's a pretty simple answer," Dodgers infielder Max Muncy said after Game 3. "We're playing like shit. They're playing great."

As much as we want to (and will) blame various Dodgers for the team's situation, the single biggest reason they're down 3-0 is that the Brewers are simply the better team. They were the better team in the regular season based on their records (103-59 vs. 100-62) and run differentials (+214 vs. +201), and they've certainly played like the better team in the NLCS. The better team doesn't always win a postseason series. In the NLCS though, the better team has played like the better team, period.

2. Shohei Ohtani

The biggest star on baseball's most star-laden team has not been himself at the plate for two months now. Shohei Ohtani is playing through knee and biceps injuries and has been so unproductive than Roberts said there would at least be a "conversation" about sitting Ohtani in Game 3. That didn't come to pass, and hey, Ohtani went 1 for 2 with a walk and a hit-by-pitch in Game 3, but the bottom line is Ohtani has been a non-factor in the NLCS. It's hard to win when your best player is this diminished.

Ohtani has had opportunities to do damage this series. Most notably, he grounded out weakly with a runner at second to end the third inning of Game 2. The Dodgers had a 2-1 lead and might have been one hit away from knocking Logan Henderson out of the game. The one out Ohtani made in Game 3 was a first-pitch fly out with a runner on first and one out, and the Dodgers trailing 1-0 in the second inning. Numerous times this series Ohtani had a chance to break through for the Dodgers, and didn't do it.

Whenever a team loses in the postseason, the best player gets a disproportionate amount of the blame, and that applies to Ohtani this series. He's clearly not healthy, yet he insists on remaining in the lineup, and he's had multiple chances in the three games to swing things in his team's favor, but couldn't do it. When the best player underperforms, he wears most of the blame. It has been the way of the world since the dawn of team sports.

3. Freddie Freeman

Freddie Freeman, not Ohtani, has been the worst player in the NLCS by both win probability added (minus-0.32) and championship probability added (minus-4.62%). He is 1 for 11 in the series and the one hit came in the first inning of Game 1. Freeman is 0 for 10 since his first NLCS at-bat and that 0 for 10 includes:

Striking out after Mookie Betts worked a leadoff walk in the third inning of Game 1.

Grounding into an inning-ending double play in the fifth inning of Game 1.

Popping up to second on the first pitch to lead off the eighth inning of Game 1.

Flying out with runners on first and second and no outs in the third inning of Game 2.

Flying out with runners on first and second and one out in the third inning of Game 3.

Grounding out with a runner on first and two outs in the fifth inning of Game 3.

That's an awful lot of empty at-bats in clutch situations for one of the best clutch hitters of this generation. Freeman had as many double plays as total bases (one each) in the NLCS, and his only RBI came on a sacrifice fly. You won't beat a team as good as the Brewers with sac flies. You need bigger swings from your best players and Freeman just isn't providing them.

4. The supporting cast

Max Muncy is 1 for 9 with four strikeouts in the NLCS. Teoscar Hernández is 2 for 10. Andy Pages is 1 for 8. Tommy Edman is 1 for 6. Will Smith is 1 for 11 in the NLCS, though his one hit was a two-run double in Game 3. Postseason legend Enrique Hernández is 0 for 5 with a ghasty strikeout in Game 3. The Dodgers had runners at second and third with one out in sixth, and Hernández took two pitches in the zone for strikes, then flailed at slider out of the zone. It was maybe the single worst at-bat of this NLCS.

Freeman's been terrible, Ohtani's been terrible, and the thing that has so often set the Dodgers apart these last few years -- an elite supporting cast -- has been terrible as well. Edman, Muncy, Smith, and Hernández are a combined 6 for 43 (.140) in the three games. Betts (3 for 12 with two walks) and Kyle Tucker (2 for 8 with three walks) are the only Dodgers hitters who escape scrutiny. They've been their most productive hitters and have consistently had strong at-bats. Everyone else? 😴😴😴

5. Dave Roberts

The manager can not swing the bat or throw the ball for his players, but he can put his team in the best position to succeed, and Roberts has not done that in the NLCS. Game 3 was a managerial mess. Roberts burned the precocious Josue De Paula in the sixth inning when he sent him up to pinch-hit for Miguel Rojas with runners on second and third and one out, then immediately pinch-hit Enrique Hernández for De Paula when the Brewers brought in a lefty reliever.

De Paula is a rookie, I get that, but he has a track record of hitting lefties well in the minors. More accurately, he has a strong track record of making contact against lefties, which is what the Dodgers needed in that spot. A ball in play to get a run home. Instead, Roberts defaulted to the veteran Hernández, who struck out feebly. For all his career postseason success, Hernández is 1 for 11 this postseason, and a .190/.235/.317 hitter in his last 19 postseason games. Roberts must adjust his priors.

A half-inning later, Roberts left Blake Snell in too long, and that's not a second guess. The Dodgers had a one-run lead and Snell was about to go through the middle of Milwaukee's lineup a third time. Snell did not get an out in the seventh inning, including giving up back-to-back homers. Ace relievers Tanner Scott and Edwin Díaz have thrown two innings in the NLCS, both by Scott. The Dodgers blew a late lead in Game 3 without their best relievers taking the mound. That's on Roberts.

The NLCS has been a flashback to pre-2024 Roberts, when he too often showed too much faith in his veterans and had an unfortunate knack for sticking with starters too long. In 2024 and 2025, it all worked out, and Roberts looked like a genius. Now those same mistakes, the ones he got away with the last two years, are rearing their ugly heads. The 3-0 NLCS deficit is on the players, first and foremost. Roberts hasn't played his cards well either. He's made things worse.