Global natural gas supplies could tighten further during the 2026–27 winter heating season as disruptions to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz continue to affect the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned.
In its report, the IEA described the disruption as an unprecedented supply shock, noting that LNG loadings from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates declined by 60 billion cubic metres (bcm) year-on-year between March and October 2026. This contributed to a 5 per cent, or 20 bcm, fall in global LNG output, as additional supplies from new projects only partly offset reduced deliveries from the Persian Gulf, according to news agency ANI.
With transit through the Strait of Hormuz remaining severely restricted in late October, the agency warned that the disruption could continue to weigh on global gas supplies during the winter months. "The disruption of LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz creates unprecedented uncertainty for the global LNG market ahead of the 2026/27 winter," the report said. It added that "the supply shock looks set to keep imposing tighter market conditions during the northern hemisphere winter, even as supply from new liquefaction plants around the globe continues to grow."
Depending on how quickly LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz recover, global LNG supply could decline by 10–25 bcm year-on-year between November and March, the IEA said.
New LNG projects unlikely to offset Persian Gulf losses
The scope for increasing pipeline gas supplies remains limited, as long-distance pipelines generally operate close to their designed capacity. This restricts their ability to compensate for shortages in LNG deliveries. North American exporters are expected to drive LNG supply growth during the winter, supported by expanding projects in the United States, Canada and Mexico. Additional volumes are also expected from new facilities in West Africa and Australia.
The IEA projects that new LNG projects will add around 18 bcm of supply during the winter, while existing facilities could contribute another 3 bcm. This would take total incremental supply from outside the Persian Gulf to slightly over 20 bcm. However, the additional volumes are not expected to make up for the shortfall from Qatar and the UAE. "In total, new and legacy projects outside the Persian Gulf could contribute slightly over 20 bcm of incremental supply y-o-y in the winter period. Despite the strong growth, this extra supply would remain insufficient to compensate for the lost volumes from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates," the report said.
IEA outlines two scenarios for winter gas supplies
The agency outlined two possible scenarios depending on when the Strait of Hormuz resumes normal operations. If the waterway begins progressively reopening in January 2027, global LNG supply could decline by around 9 bcm, or 3 per cent, year-on-year during the winter period. However, if the Strait remains closed until the end of March 2027, the decline could be sharper, with global LNG supply falling by around 20 bcm, or 7 per cent, year-on-year.
The IEA also cautioned that unplanned outages and delays in ramping up production at new LNG projects could create additional downside risks to global supplies, particularly while the disruption in the Middle East continues.
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