"Will Putin die in office? Very likely," says Kremlin opponent Khodorkovsky

According to Kremlin opponent Mikhail Khodorkovsky, a quick end to the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine is not in sight. The support for Russian President Vladimir Putin in his own country is still “big enough” for the time being, said the 63-year-old Khodorkovsky to journalists in Berlin on Thursday. It is all the more important that Ukraine's supporters developed other strategies more than four and a half years after the start of the war.

All of Putin's potential problems, such as the economic situation after years of sanctions, are "not critical to date," Khodorkovsky said. In the next two years there will be "no decisive" hindrance to the war - even if signs of wear and tear on infrastructure such as roads and facilities gradually become apparent, said the former head of the now broken oil company Yukos.

Support for the war among the population has also been growing since Ukraine has increasingly been attacking facilities on Russian territory with drones. Surveys showed that only 35 percent of the population wanted an end to the war. At the same time, 30 percent did not rule out the possibility that they or their relatives could go to war. It will take “at least another year” for this mood to change, Khodorkovsky said. Due to the propaganda of the Russian state apparatus, citizens are also convinced that they themselves would suffer damage in the event of a defeat.

The West's “de-escalation approach” is unfortunately “wrong,” said Khodorkovsky, because Putin is “not a statesman of the modern world,” but has been “outside the law” since his youth. He will “choose all the escalating steps he wants.” Putin said the use of nuclear weapons “doesn’t make sense at the moment,” but he doesn’t have “moral or ethical concerns.”

The stability of the “Putin regime” clearly depends on the continuation of the war, said Khodorkovsky. Although it is possible to freeze the conflict, the West could make many mistakes with such an agreement. "Will Putin die in office? Very likely," he said of the 74-year-old Kremlin chief. At best, it could be possible to freeze the war and achieve limited de-escalation.

Khodorkovsky did not share the fear that Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin could be succeeded by an even more radical ruler in Russia. “I don’t expect anything worse to come after him,” said the former oil tycoon. “Anything that can be made worse, Putin will do.”

According to Khodorkovsky, democratization of Russia is “not to be expected in the next 20 years”. It would be more realistic to rely on Parliament and the Federation Council being given more power. The West could also try to “divide the elites”. Unfortunately, the West did not take advantage of the initial anti-war sentiment among the Russian elite. They have now set up a safety net abroad.

Khodorkovsky was in Berlin at the invitation of the Modern Liberal Center for the international conference “Russia and the West”. The founder of the center, the former Green Party politician Ralf Fücks, pointed out that the Ukraine war was a “multiple asymmetrical” conflict. Unfortunately, Ukraine’s supporters left “escalation dominance to Putin because there is no clear and decisive answer.”

“We are on the defensive the whole time,” said Fücks. “Putin says very precisely what he wants. (…) Europe is just reacting,” complained Fücks and called for the formulation of its own goals. “Active and offensive policy towards Russia – that is the only language Putin understands.”

Khodorkovsky once owned Yukos, Russia's largest oil company. It was created at the beginning of the 1990s when oligarchs like him took over former Soviet state property at bargain prices. Khodorkovsky later emerged as a harsh critic of Putin, was arrested in 2003 and spent ten years in prison. Since his release, he has lived in exile and has founded several opposition movements against Putin.