Economy and national team: fight to join the world leaders

The national soccer team and the German economy have one thing in common: they are fighting for their place at the top of the world. Which means: They try hard. Just as things rumbled as expected in the first game under new national coach Jürgen Klopp against the Netherlands despite all the passion, so things are rumbling in many areas of German industry. But: Klopp's men didn't lose, they left the game 1-1. And in 2026, German economic output (GDP) - according to the diagnosis of the leading economic research institutes - will be above the 2022 value for the first time. The economists increased their expectations from the spring from 0.6 percent to 1.3 percent.

The industrialized nations organization OECD has also noticed such a glimmer of hope. It increases its forecast to 1.1 percent growth – 0.4 percentage points more than in June. She also expects 1.1 percent for the coming year. What is unexpected is where the plus comes from. It was assumed that the state would primarily be responsible for the economy, financed by the federal government's huge debt. But a large part of the growth this year comes from exports. Which is surprising because rising energy prices caused by the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz led to expectations that Germany's competitiveness would continue to suffer. So we can still win.

But the football team is further ahead in one respect. The team now knows what Klopp expects: more passion, more defense, more speed. Having an idea is an advantage. The economy is missing this so far. To stay with the picture: It is still unclear whether Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) can hold on in the long term. It is also uncertain whether he will actually implement the cuts in pensions, care and health care, as discussed in the coalition. What is certain is that these cuts alone will not bring about an economic recovery. They're just defense.

But the Chancellor and his team need a vision of what an adapted game idea for the location could look like in a world in which globally agreed trade rules often no longer apply and the imitators of yesteryear - i.e. China - are now world leaders themselves. What local conditions does this government want to create? Or, to use the football comparison again: How does the country get new goal scorers when the old warhorses from car manufacturing are scoring less and less often?