
世界氣象組織(WMO)發布月度氣候公報指出,今年的聖嬰現象預計逐漸增強,12月達高峰,且幾乎確定持續至2027年2月,強度可能為1950年以來最強,海面溫度預計比正常值高出攝氏3.7度。
AI-generated summary
聖嬰現象是聖嬰-南方振盪現象週期中海面變暖的階段,通常每2到7年發生一次,會導致全球氣溫升高並擾亂降雨模式。
世界氣象組織(WMO)在今(8)日發布月度氣候公報中表示,今年的聖嬰現象(El Niño)預計會逐漸增強,並在12月達到高峰,且幾乎確定會持續到2027年2月。
《路透》報導,WMO秘書長紹洛(Celeste Saulo)在與公報同步發表的聲明中指出:「WMO預報顯示,聖嬰現象持續至2027年2月的可能性接近100%,強度還有可能是自1950年以來最強的一次。」
WMO指出,熱帶太平洋地區的中部和東部海域是聖嬰現象的核心區域,當地10月至12月的海面溫度,預計會比正常值高出攝氏3.7度,這個數字若當真出現就會刷新紀錄。
紹洛點出:「聖嬰現象所吸取的海洋,是我們有史以來測量過溫度最高的,海面可以釋放的熱量就是多了很多。」
聖嬰現象是聖嬰-南方振盪現象週期中海面變暖的階段,通常每2到7年發生一次。聖嬰現象會導致全球氣溫升高,並擾亂大範圍地區的降雨模式,部分地區出現乾旱,其他地區則出現豪雨。
芝加哥大學氣候影響實驗室(Climate Impact Lab)的研究人員上月提出預測,今年6月至2027年2月期間,「超級聖嬰現象」可能會導致全球出現多達45.1萬例超額死亡。
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
聖嬰現象持續至2027年2月並在12月達到高峰
Very likely · Within months

Affected by the easterly jet stream, there will be heavy rainfall in the eastern half of Hainan Island from the 8th to the 9th. Hainan Provincial Meteorology, Natural Resources and Water Affairs Departments have jointly issued early warnings for heavy rains, geological disasters and flash floods, reminding relevant cities and counties to do prevention and avoidance work.

Today, the central and eastern regions ushered in the start of work on a sunny day and ushered in the "cold dew" solar term. In the next three days, the temperature will rise in most parts of the south of the Yellow River, and many places will be warm. The temperature difference between morning and evening in the north will exceed 15℃. Hohhot is the first to enter winter. Typhoons "Noro" and "Little Bear" are active and have no impact on my country.

As the National Day holiday begins tomorrow, the Central Meteorological Administration has forecast multiple northeasterly wind conditions in the coming week. On the first day of the holiday, there will be sporadic brief showers in greater Taipei, eastern Taipei and the Hengchun Peninsula. On Sunday, Keelung's north coast and northeast must be prepared for locally heavy rains. Next Wednesday, the northeast monsoon will strengthen slightly and then weaken rapidly, with little change in temperature in various places.

The Taipei High Administrative Court today ruled to revoke the conclusion of the second phase environmental impact assessment of China Fire Gas. Environmental groups pointed out that Taipower failed to implement the addition of one and remove one, failed to assess the impact of methane leakage and air pollution during operation, and did not propose a sunset plan. They called on the Ministry of Environment and Taipower to abandon the appeal and enter the more stringent second-level environmental impact assessment. The Ministry of Environment said that it would discuss it after receiving the judgment, and it still did not rule out an appeal.

The Central Meteorological Administration pointed out that Typhoon No. 28 "Little Bear" is currently located in the sea southwest of Wake Island, moving northwest to west at a speed of 20 kilometers per hour, and is expected to move towards the sea east of Japan. Meteorology fan expert "Taiwan Typhoon Forum | Weather Emergency" stated that the environment of "Little Bear" is good and will enter the outbreak period on the 9th. It has the chance to become the eighth strong typhoon this year, but its path shows that the probability of affecting East Japan is low. Typhoon No. 27 "Noro" will turn northeast and will not affect the East Asian land.

The Hainan Provincial Meteorological Observatory predicts that due to the influence of the easterly jet stream, there will be heavy to heavy rains and local heavy rains in the eastern half of Hainan Island from October 8 to 9. Monitoring showed that showers or thundershowers occurred in the southeastern half from 8:00 on the 7th to 7:00 on the 8th, and the rainfall in Dongao Town, Wanning, reached 120.6 mm. The Meteorological Bureau continues to issue level four heavy rain warnings. The Department of Water Affairs and the Meteorological Bureau jointly issued yellow flash flood disaster risk warnings. Some areas in Wenchang, Haikou and other places have blue warnings for flash flood risks. Qionghai, Wanning, Qiongzhong, Ding'an, Tunchang and other places have issued yellow warnings.