The war limits the supply of wheat. Exports from Russia and Ukraine are falling dramatically

The war limits the supply of wheat. Exports from Russia and Ukraine are falling dramatically

The Black Sea region is crucial for grain transport - if buyers cannot import grain from there, they must look for supplies elsewhere, which further drives up prices, said Ole Hansen, director of commodity markets strategy at Saxo Bank.

Ukraine and Russia account for approximately one third of global wheat exports, so disruptions in their operations quickly affect prices.

Russia began attacking Ukrainian ports and ships in 2022. In the summer, hostilities in the Black Sea escalated - since then, Moscow and Kiev have been attacking each other's ships and ports. The water area has also become particularly dangerous for commercial shipping. As emphasized by the Politico website, more crew members died in the Black Sea in July than in the entire previous period of the war.

Asia buys grain much more expensive

Estimates from Kpler, a company that monitors world trade, show that Russian wheat exports in September will drop to about 1 million tons (from 5 million tons in the same month of 2025), and Ukraine will send about 1 million tons, i.e. half of the export volume from September last year.

In the short term, these shortages will most affect Asia, Reuters experts said.

Very few ships enter ports for loading, and what little is exported from Russia and Ukraine goes to customers in the Middle East and Africa. Nothing is flowing to Asia, said Ishan Bhanu, agricultural market analyst at Kpler.

Indonesia, the world's second-largest importer, received only about 60,000 from the Black Sea region this month. tons of grain, while in September last year it was half a million tons - said an industry representative.

Indonesian customers are turning to other suppliers, but the cost of purchasing wheat in Australia is approximately 20-25 percent lower than in Australia. higher than the prices of previously contracted supplies from the Black Sea region.

Prices have increased significantly, and we are unable to pass on the entire costs to the recipients of our flour, said a representative of an importer from Southeast Asia.

Egypt, the world's largest importer, is expected to receive less than a tenth of the volume of deliveries from Russia and Ukraine in the September-October period compared to last year. According to official data, in the first half of September, wheat imports to Egypt dropped to 143,800. tons from 876.1 thousand tons a year earlier, when most of the supplies came from Russia and Ukraine.