Yemen conflict threatens Bab el-Mandeb Strait oil route, Iraqi expert warns
Quick Look
Iraqi energy expert Ziyad al-Hashemi warned that hostilities in southwestern Yemen could close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, disrupting Saudi oil exports to Asia at 5 million barrels per day and triggering global oil market turmoil, as Houthi rebels escalate attacks near the Red Sea chokepoint.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is a vital maritime chokepoint connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, through which significant volumes of Middle Eastern oil flow to Asian markets. Recent Houthi offensives in Yemen's southwest have increased tensions near this route.
RABAT, September 11. /TASS/. A potential closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden in the Arabian Sea, due to hostilities in southwestern Yemen poses a grave threat to the primary oil supply route from the Middle East to Asian nations, Iraqi energy expert Ziyad al-Hashemi warned.
"Disruption of shipping in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait would primarily strike the main artery for Saudi oil shipments destined for Asian markets," the news portal Baghdad Today quoted him as saying. The expert believes that "the danger of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait closing lies in the threat of disrupting Saudi oil exports to Asia - amounting to approximately 5 million barrels per day - which could have a direct impact on global markets."
Al-Hashemi explained that "a halt in these shipments could trigger turmoil in the oil market and drive up prices, particularly on the spot market." In his view, "a simultaneous stoppage of oil exports through both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could cause severe disruptions to oil supplies, especially those bound for Asian markets."
The situation in Yemen escalated sharply in early September when the Yemeni Houthi rebel movement, Ansar Allah, launched an offensive in the country's southwest. At the same time, it began launching missile and UAV strikes against coastal areas along the Red Sea and the vicinity of the city of Taiz, seeking to cut off access routes to the port of al-Mocha and advance toward areas along the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Bab el-Mandeb Strait shipping disruptions will trigger noticeable increases in global oil spot prices
Likely · Within days
Houthi rebel activity will continue to threaten coastal areas near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and Red Sea
Likely · Within weeks
Open Questions
- How likely is a complete closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait?
- What alternative routes exist for Saudi oil exports to Asia?
- What is the current status of Houthi control over coastal areas near the strait?
- Are international naval forces increasing presence in the region to protect shipping?
