MİLLİYET.COM.TR / As the tension between Israel and Türkiye moves to an increasingly sensitive point over Syria, a remarkable analysis came from Greece.
While Greece-based BankingNews claimed that Israel has already taken action against the military capacities that Türkiye may create in the future by carrying its "preventive war" approach to Syria, it evaluated that Athens' deepening defense relations with Tel Aviv may face Greece with a difficult equation in the event of a possible crisis.
'SOMETHING BIG WILL HAPPEN'
BankingNews announced the developments with the title "Israel is playing with fire, Greece is on the verge of flames - Something big will happen." The question at the center of the analysis is quite clear: Where will Greece, which increasingly integrates its defense and strategy with Israel, position itself if the tension between Türkiye and Israel gets out of control?
'IT GAINED A NEW DIMENSION'
According to BankingNews' analysis, the Netanyahu government is carrying its "preventive war" approach to Türkiye's borders. The news claimed that "Israel's attacks on military capacities that have not yet been established in Syria are interpreted as the tension between Ankara and Tel Aviv no longer proceeding only through diplomatic statements and has gained a military dimension."
One of the most striking examples of this approach in the Greek press was cited as Israel's attack on the Abu Zuhur Air Base in northwestern Syria on August 18. While it was reported that eight attacks were carried out by Israeli planes targeting runways and facilities on the base near Aleppo, it was reminded that Turkey condemned the attack as a violation of Syria's sovereignty and territorial integrity.
However, according to the Greek media, the most striking aspect of the attack was that Israel did not claim that an attack was carried out against itself at the base. Instead, Tel Aviv cited the possibility that the base in question could be used by Türkiye in the future. Thus, it was argued that Israel was trying to prevent a military capacity that it thought might emerge in the future, rather than responding to an attack that had already occurred.
'IT MAY CREATE A GROUND FOR CONFLICT'
BankingNews is of the opinion that if the two powerful military actors of the Eastern Mediterranean begin to act with this understanding, the distance between deterrence and a self-feeding conflict may become dangerously short. In other words, the tension experienced over a capacity that does not yet exist may itself create the basis for a new conflict.
'Imminent THREAT'
While this situation was evaluated as a dangerous precedent for regional security, the news said, "A state's attack on the grounds that another regional power may establish military capacity in a third country in the future can greatly expand the boundaries of the concept of 'imminent threat'. Instead of reducing the possibility of war, such an approach may, on the contrary, trigger a process that may lead to conflict."
'THERE IS NO NEED TO SHOW DOWN THE ISRAELI PLANE'
The most striking part of the analysis for Türkiye was devoted to the change in the balance of power in Syria. BankingNews stated that Türkiye has gained a much stronger influence in the new Syrian equation that emerged after the overthrow of the Assad regime. It was emphasized that Ankara cooperates closely with Damascus, supports the reconstruction of Syria's state and military structures, and sees the country as a strategically vital area.
"This situation is considered as a new situation that may have direct military consequences for Israel. There is no need for a Turkish radar to be installed in Syria to shoot down Israeli planes. Even the radar's ability to detect Israeli planes, record their routes, determine their altitudes and create electronic traces of operations may limit Tel Aviv's freedom of movement in Syrian airspace," the news said.
CRITICAL DATE
According to Athens, the tension has a political dimension as well as a military one. Israel will go to the polls on October 27, 2026, and BankingNews pointed out that anti-Türkiye rhetoric has become increasingly visible in the rhetoric of the Israeli election campaign
It was reported that Netanyahu highlighted himself as the main guarantor of Israel's security and re-emphasized the security-centered election strategy he had used before and put Turkey at the center.
THE CRITICAL EQUATION WAITING FOR ATHENS
BankingNews particularly underlined that all these developments do not mean that Greece will automatically enter the war on the side of Israel in a possible Türkiye-Israel conflict. There is no such automatic war obligation in the defense cooperation between Athens and Tel Aviv.
According to the news, as operational, technological and defense industry ties with Israel deepen, it may become difficult for Greece to be considered as a completely independent factor by all actors in the region in the event of a major crisis between Turkey and Israel.
Moreover, Athens already has extremely sensitive issues with Ankara. Topics such as the Aegean Sea, Eastern Mediterranean, Cyprus, continental shelf, maritime jurisdictions and armament competition have been among the most important agenda items in the relations between the two countries for years.
For this reason, a broader military tension between Israel and Türkiye that may start over Syria could add a new and serious dimension to the already complex security equation for Greece.
At the end of the analysis, a remarkable question was asked: "If Israel continues to turn every threat that is thought to arise in the future into a reason for military intervention, will Athens' real calculation be made only on 'how close it wants to be to Israel', or will it also take into account how close it will get to the consequences of this choice?" statement was made.
