While Athens is preparing to restart the undersea electric cable project (Great Sea Interconnector - GSI), which is planned to connect Greece to Israel via Southern Cyprus, Ankara, on the one hand, gave clear messages about the project and simultaneously assigned the Oruç Reis Research Ship to the Eastern Mediterranean within the scope of the natural gas pipeline project that will connect Turkey to the TRNC. The moves of Ankara and Athens point to a new arena of struggle in terms of geopolitical balances in the region, and reactivate the maritime jurisdiction competition between the two sides.
ATHENS'S WASHINGTON ACCOUNT
The Greek government thinks that it has taken France on its side in the submarine cable project, which has not progressed for two years due to Ankara's determined attitude. With the agreement signed in August 2026, the French company Meridiam became the main partner of the GSI company carrying out the project, with 66 percent shares. On the other hand, it is expected that Athens will try to include Washington in the process through US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, which it will host on Tuesday.
THE TRUMP FACTOR
Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, who supported Democratic candidate Joe Biden before US President Donald Trump's second presidential term, has not yet fully established the closeness he seeks in relations with the Trump administration. Although Trump came to Ankara in July as part of the NATO Summit, he did not visit Athens, which created disappointment in the Greek government. While Athens continues to seek direct contact with the Trump administration, Rubio's visit is important in this respect. The Greek government is expected to bring Turkish-Greek relations, which have become tense again in recent months, to the agenda of the talks. Rubio's agenda also includes the "Vertical Gas Corridor", which aims to transport US liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe.
ANKARA'S OBJECTION
Washington or Paris's emphasis on the project may not be enough to eliminate Turkey's determination. While Türkiye argues that the GSI route passes through its own continental shelf, it is waiting for Ankara's consent in accordance with international law. While the Ministry of National Defense said in its latest statement, "No unauthorized activity will be allowed on our continental shelf," Athens, on the other hand, claims that it is not necessary to obtain permission from Ankara.
NEIGHBOR'S RISING CONCERNS
The most important question for Athens is what will happen in the Eastern Mediterranean if the project progresses despite Ankara's objections. Two years ago, warships came face to face due to the cable project and tension arose; At that time, open dialogue channels between Ankara and Athens enabled the crisis to be overcome. However, relations that have recently become tense again make it difficult to use these channels effectively. On the other hand, the close relationship between Trump and President Tayyip Erdoğan and the political activity in Washington before the midterm elections in the USA in November make Athens' calculations even more complicated.
THREE CRITICAL INDICATORS
Aleksis Papahelas, Editor-in-Chief of Kathimerini newspaper, one of the doyens of the Greek press, drew attention to three indicators that could determine the course of Turkish-Greek relations in the coming months, in his analysis he wrote recently. Papahelas warned that correct reading of these indicators could lead to correct evaluations, while incorrect reading could lead to "adventures" and listed them as follows.
POLITICAL INSTABILITY IN ONE OF THE TWO COUNTRIES
Past Greek-Turkish crises have frequently coincided with periods of political instability or change of government in one of the parties. In the coming period, the increase in political polarization and uncertainty as Greece enters the election process will be one of the factors that need to be closely monitored in terms of bilateral relations. Prolonged political uncertainty and successive elections could also narrow Athens' room for maneuver in relations with Ankara.
WEAKING OF COMMUNICATION CHANNELS
It is a significant risk that the communication channels between Ankara and Athens, which came into play in times of crisis in the past, do not function today. The lack of phone calls, the failure of leaders to meet during the UN General Assemblies for two years, and the failure to hold a meeting at the NATO summit may make it difficult to prevent misunderstandings in case of possible tension.
UNCERTAINTY OF THE INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENT
It is unclear how Trump will react if tensions rise between the two sides. Will US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Israel's allies in the US or US Ambassador to Ankara Tom Barrack and Trump's personal circle be influential? The United States is entering a period of internal instability, and this situation will probably escalate further after the congressional elections in November.
HEAVY QUESTION TO GREECE AT UNSC: 'WHY DID YOU SIT ON ISRAEL'S LAPS?'
Greece's Presidency of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) in October had a difficult start due to Athens' closeness with Israel. At the press conference held in New York, Greece's Permanent Representative to the UN and UNSC President Aglaia Balta was asked why Athens was getting closer to Israel despite the Greek people's support for Palestine. Arab journalist said, "80 percent of the Greek people support Palestine. Despite this, your prime minister gave a very friendly appearance by hugging Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu at the General Assembly. What pushes Greece to sit on Israel's lap?" he said.
HE WAS LOOKING FOR AN EXCUSE
Greek diplomat Balta said, "Don't judge just by looking at the photos," and suggested that Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis did not only meet with Netanyahu. Emphasizing that Greece is in favor of a two-state solution, Balta said, "Our relations with the Arab world continue, but this does not mean that you will not talk to Israel. To advance the Palestinian cause, you need to talk to both sides." The journalist was not satisfied with this answer and reminded that Athens made an arms deal with Israel worth approximately 3 billion euros.
