Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, once hailed as truth-seeking tools, face an identity crisis. While proponents see them as valuable for forecasting world events, a surge in sports betting and concerns over addiction, insider trading, and "gambling-like design" are souring public opinion and attracting regulatory scrutiny.
Wealthsimple is launching a prediction markets app, Wealthsimple Predict, in Canada this summer. The app, powered by Kalshi, will offer access to thousands of event-based contracts after receiving regulatory approval from CIRO.
Rep. Bryan Steil is introducing a provision to ban congressional lawmakers and their families from betting on prediction markets related to policy, politics, and elections. The measure, part of a larger bill banning stock trading, includes a $2,000 fee or 10% of the transaction value for violations.
A Michigan federal judge ruled that sports prediction market wagers are not swaps under the CFTC's jurisdiction, denying Polymarket's bid to block state regulators. The case is headed to the Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals.
Prediction markets are seeing increased institutional adoption for hedging risks like tariffs, with trading volume doubling. However, issues with liquidity depth and dispute resolution, particularly concerning token-weighted votes and contract wording, pose significant challenges for large-scale adoption.
Prediction markets are seeing increased institutional interest for corporate hedging, offering direct bets on events like tariffs or regulatory changes. However, challenges with liquidity depth and dispute resolution mechanisms, particularly concerning token-weighted voting, pose significant risks for large-scale adoption.
Sports prediction markets are experiencing a surge in activity, with Kalshi setting a new daily trading record of $1.2 billion. Numerous companies, including Novig and ProphetX, are seeking CFTC approval to enter the space, which is already dominated by Kalshi and includes players like Polymarket, Robinhood, and major sportsbooks.
The CFTC is suing New Mexico officials to block state efforts to regulate prediction markets, arguing federal law grants it exclusive jurisdiction. New Mexico had sued Kalshi for allegedly offering unlicensed sports betting.
DraftKings reported rapid growth in its prediction markets business, with annualized consumer volume reaching $1.3 billion and total volume $3.1 billion in May 2026. However, established platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket process significantly higher volumes, highlighting DraftKings' late entry into a mature market. The sector's legal status as derivatives overseen by the CFTC is a key point of contention.
A new study estimates Americans wagered up to $34 billion on offshore prediction markets in a 12-month span, with potential to reach $133 billion by 2030. The Coalition for Prediction Markets highlights risks associated with unregulated platforms.
Tokenization is a consistent growth area in crypto, with Kraken launching tokenized SpaceX IPO access via xStocks. Prediction markets surpassed onchain gambling in Q1 2026 volume, while former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried formally requested a pardon from Donald Trump.
Bernstein research suggests the 2026 FIFA World Cup will significantly boost prediction markets, potentially generating billions in new revenue. Coinbase and Robinhood are identified as major beneficiaries, with Coinbase already seeing substantial growth and Robinhood launching its own CFTC-licensed exchange.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup is projected to generate over $3 billion in incremental handle and $10 billion in broader consumer volume uplift across sports betting and prediction platforms, potentially marking a watershed moment for the industry.
The US CFTC has proposed new rules for prediction markets, distinguishing sports event contracts from gaming and clarifying election contracts. The proposal aims to provide regulatory clarity for platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, which have seen significant growth and institutional interest.
The CFTC proposed new rules to ban prediction markets on outcomes tied to war or assassination, including foreign leader ousters. It also targets certain sports prop bets. The proposal enters a 45-day public comment period.
Prediction markets generated $36.6 billion in volume in Q1 2026, surpassing onchain gambling's $14 billion, according to TRM Labs. Both sectors showed resilience during a crypto market correction.
Federal regulators have proposed the first rules to oversee prediction markets, focusing on contracts related to terrorism, assassinations, and war. The CFTC aims to balance market integrity with innovation, allowing a 45-day public comment period before finalizing the framework.
A US soldier is accused of insider trading on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market, by betting on the fall of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro using classified information. This marks the first prosecution of its kind.
Research suggests prediction market regulators should calibrate, not ban, insider trading enforcement. Optimal enforcement balances accuracy and participation, with stricter rules for misappropriated or outcome-influencing information.
Active-duty US Army soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke will stand trial in December for allegedly abusing classified intelligence to profit from prediction markets. He faces charges including commodities fraud and wire fraud.
Over 200 companies urge Senate leaders to vote on the CLARITY Act, citing competitiveness and consumer protection concerns, as market predictions diverge on its passage amidst legislative bottlenecks.
South Korea's Gangwon Provincial Police Agency is investigating domestic Polymarket users for illegal gambling on election outcomes, tracing crypto transactions, with potential fines up to 10 million won ($6,500).
House Republicans propose adding restrictions on lawmakers' use of prediction markets to a stalled stock trading ban bill, limiting bets on elections and public policy but allowing those on sports and entertainment.
US Rep. Bryan Steil plans to amend a congressional stock ban bill to include prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, citing concerns over insider trading on elections and public policy.
