Science·4/27/2026AI summary Scientists Watch for Strong El Niño That Could Push Global Temperature Past 1.5°C Threshold
Climate scientists are monitoring the tropical Pacific for a strong El Niño that could permanently push global temperatures past the 1.5°C warming threshold within the next 12-18 months. A December 2025 Nature Communications study found that super El Niño events—defined as sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding 2 standard deviations—can trigger climate regime shifts, causing abrupt and lasting changes in heat, rainfall, and drought patterns. With only three super El Niños on record (1982-83, 1997-98, 2015-16), researchers warn these events can shift regional climate conditions for years or decades, while the UN estimates developing countries need $310-365 billion annually by 2035 to adapt.