Shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains minimal following the announcement of a US-Iran peace deal, with analysts expressing uncertainty about the timeline and specifics of restoring normal operations. Hundreds of commercial ships are stranded as details of the agreement's implementation, including potential asset releases, are still unclear.
Iran confirmed allowing 26 vessels to transit a key strait, coinciding with the exit of three VLCCs carrying 6 million barrels of oil. Analysts await confirmation if this signals a broader trend.
The report assumes that the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed until late May, with shipping traffic beginning to pick up in June
China called for a "prompt resumption of shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz," though that point was absent in Iran's statement.
Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted since the ceasefire, with only four ships passing on the first day compared to the usual 140. Shipping companies are hesitant due to security concerns, potential tolls, and high insurance costs.
