Robotization, GenAI could boost Russian labor productivity by 33% by 2032

MOSCOW, June 2. /TASS/. Robotization and GenAI (generative AI) could boost labor productivity in the Russian economy by up to 33% by 2032, Sberbank said in its study ahead of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF).

The study authors noted that in 2026, the Russian labor market is in the point of fundamental transformation, as traditional methods of increasing employment intensity reached their limits. Considering Russia’s GDP growth rate targets and current productivity trends, a labor shortage of 0.5 mln people is projected by 2032, making increased labor productivity the only viable driver of sustainable economic growth.

"By 2032, efficiency exactly will be the key factor determining the competitiveness of the Russian economy. The adoption of a triad of technologies, GenAI, robotization, and remote work models, is able to boost labor productivity by 21-33% by 2032 if businesses implement them aggressively," the study indicates.

The greatest potential for GenAI adoption in Russia is concentrated at the same time in Moscow, St. Petersburg, Sevastopol, and in the Samara, Tomsk, and Novosibirsk Regions, Sber said. In industries dominated by manual labor, automation is becoming the primary tool for addressing labor shortages, complementing the capabilities of AI, which in turn does not lead to job losses but effectively redistributes tasks.

The economy has enormous untapped potential, and that removing barriers for efficient businesses could boost productivity by 1.5 to 2 times, Sberbank said. Specifically, reallocating resources in the manufacturing sector according to the Indian model could lead to a 48% increase in output without hiring additional staff.

"A GenAI strategy requires a solid analytical foundation. Our new base, which links types of activities to job tasks, will be one of the first building blocks of this foundation and will help integrate three areas of knowledge into a single system: employers’ demand for skills, the supply of skills from candidates and the education system, and the capabilities of modern GenAI systems," said Alexander Isakov, the Head of the Sberbank’s Center for Macroeconomic Research.