La plateforme de marchés prédictifs Kalshi, valorisée à 22 milliards de dollars, étudierait une entrée en bourse. Malgré une pression réglementaire croissante, l'entreprise cherche à lever des capitaux pour financer son développement et ses batailles juridiques.
Wealthsimple is launching a prediction markets app, Wealthsimple Predict, in Canada this summer. The app, powered by Kalshi, will offer access to thousands of event-based contracts after receiving regulatory approval from CIRO.
Kalshi traders are increasingly betting on Federal Reserve rate hikes this year, with chances of a 2026 hike surging to 57%. Policymakers signaled higher rates might be possible, shifting from a previous outlook of cuts. The FOMC maintained current rates but removed language hinting at future reductions.
Kentucky has sued prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket, alleging they operate illegal sports betting operations. The platforms contend their contracts fall under CFTC oversight, a stance previously supported by the Trump administration. This escalating state-federal legal battle is expected to reach the U.S. Supreme Court.
Rep. Bryan Steil is introducing a provision to ban congressional lawmakers and their families from betting on prediction markets related to policy, politics, and elections. The measure, part of a larger bill banning stock trading, includes a $2,000 fee or 10% of the transaction value for violations.
Le CME Group, un acteur majeur des marchés de dérivés, annonce son intention de poursuivre la CFTC en justice. Il conteste l'approbation des contrats à terme perpétuels, arguant qu'ils devraient être qualifiés de swaps selon la loi Dodd-Frank. Cette qualification pourrait donner au CME un quasi-monopole sur ces produits.
Kalshi partners with StarCompliance to launch a monitoring platform for financial firms to oversee employee activity on prediction markets, amid increasing regulatory scrutiny over insider trading.
La plateforme de prédiction Kalshi a généré plus de 5,5 milliards de dollars de volume de trading sur ses contrats à terme perpétuels en deux semaines. L'entreprise, qui propose actuellement 11 contrats liés aux cryptomonnaies, prévoit de diversifier son offre avec des contrats sur les actions, les matières premières, les événements sportifs et politiques, tout en naviguant les régulations de la CFTC.
美國總統川普宣布與伊朗就重啟荷姆茲海峽達成協議，市場預測航運最快8月恢復正常，機率達58%。協議內容包括解除海上封鎖，預計將在週五簽署後開放，並在特定時期內免通行費。
SpaceX debuted on Nasdaq with a 19% stock increase, surpassing a $2 trillion market valuation. However, its ambitious Mars colonization plans face long timelines, with traders giving an 18% chance of a human mission by 2030.
A coalition including Kalshi, Crypto.com, and Polymarket has filed a lawsuit challenging Kentucky's new 14.25% excise tax on prediction market operators' transaction fees, arguing it's discriminatory, unconstitutional, and preempted by federal law. The coalition claims the tax is higher than on other industries and pushes users toward illegal platforms.
A viral chant celebrating the Knicks' NBA finals run, blending cultural references and city pride, has captivated New York. Initially featuring "My mayor Muslim, My bagel's Jewish, Knicks in four," it evolved to "Knicks in five" after a team loss, with a nod to the Pope. The chant's success is attributed to its cultural resonance, unity, and clever marketing by prediction market Kalshi.
Prediction market operator Kalshi is implementing new compliance measures, including a disclosure rule for high-risk markets and a risk scoring framework, to combat insider trading concerns. These steps aim to identify and prevent manipulation, though some experts question their effectiveness.
Prediction market operator Kalshi will soon require users to disclose their employment information to prevent insider trading. The move aims to identify and screen out potential insiders on markets deemed at high risk for manipulation, such as those related to national security or upcoming IPOs.
BBB National Programs' National Advertising Division (NAD) is referring prediction market platform Kalshi to regulatory authorities after the company declined to participate in an inquiry into its social media advertising practices.
Former Congressman George Santos threatened a journalist with a violent remark after a story exposed federal investigations into his trading activities on Kalshi, a prediction market site.
US Rep. Bryan Steil plans to amend a congressional stock ban bill to include prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, citing concerns over insider trading on elections and public policy.
Kalshi is reportedly developing a new interface for its highly engaged traders, likened to the 'Bloomberg Terminal' for prediction markets. The platform will offer features like tracking volumes, real-time trades, and customizable interfaces, aiming to serve 'sharps' seeking an edge.
Kalshi, a prediction market platform, is partnering with a New York City bar, The Jeffery, to demonstrate its hedging strategy for small businesses. The bar placed a $5,000 trade on the Knicks winning their game against the Spurs, aiming to cover customer tabs if they win, or profit from increased business if they lose.
Bitcoin prices dropped to their lowest point since early April, falling below $66,500. Traders on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket anticipate further declines, with significant probabilities assigned to prices falling below $60,000 and even $50,000 in 2026 and 2024, respectively.
Federal authorities are investigating former Congressman George Santos for alleged insider trading related to a bet placed on an online prediction market about his attendance at the State of the Union address.
O ex-deputado George Santos está sob investigação por suposto uso de informação privilegiada em um mercado de previsões online, a Kalshi. A plataforma o reportou ao Departamento de Justiça e à CFTC após detectar negociações suspeitas antes do discurso de Trump em 24 de fevereiro.
Following the CFTC's approval of Bitcoin perpetual futures, Kalshi has applied to self-certify derivatives for 12 major altcoins, aiming to expand regulated crypto derivatives trading in the U.S. beyond Bitcoin.
Especialistas alertam que plataformas de previsão, como Polymarket e Kalshi, não são um bom termômetro para a disputa presidencial brasileira, apesar de serem usadas nas redes sociais. O governo brasileiro bloqueou o acesso a esses sites, que operam como derivativos financeiros, mas políticos e influenciadores de direita continuam a divulgar seus dados como contraponto às pesquisas tradicionais. No entanto, o mercado de apostas reflete mais o comportamento de operadores sofisticados e pode ser manipulado, diferentemente das pesquisas eleitorais.
