
Analysis of the impact of election results on Iran, Gulf countries, China and Russia
AI-generated summary
The results of the US midterm elections showed that the Democratic Party won control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives. Trump acknowledged the war in Iran and the rising cost of living as reasons for the Republican candidate's defeat. Iran's Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei said the election results would not change U.S. hostility toward Iran. The trade war agreement between China and the United States will expire at the end of January next year. Russia and Ukraine are expected to hold trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi this month.
The Democrats won control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives in the U.S. midterm elections and will control Congress for the remainder of President Trump's term.
This election brought major changes to the American political landscape and constituted a major setback for President Trump. He acknowledged that the war in Iran and the rising cost of living contributed to the defeat of many Republican candidates.
U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance said: "The reason we lost the election is this (Iran) war."
From conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East to the US trade relationship with China, BBC reporters analyze what the election results mean for the rest of the world.
iran
Ghoncheh Habibiazad, senior BBC Persian correspondent in London
Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said that anyone who thinks that changes in the political situation in the United States will change "American hostility towards Iran" is "absolutely wrong."
Khamenei also warned that if the United States attacks Iran again, the scale of Iran's counterattack will "further expand."
The supreme leader took over after his father, Ali Khamenei, was killed in a joint U.S.-Israeli airstrike on February 28. Mujtaba Khamenei has not been seen in public for months.
The remarks came from a six-page written statement he issued on Wednesday, the anniversary of the 1979 occupation of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran by Iranian demonstrators.
gulf arab states
BBC security correspondent Frank Gardner
In theory, this electoral setback for Project Trump could at other times be seen as a blow to the Gulf Arab states.
Trump and his family have close personal and business ties with many Gulf countries.
Dubai is home to a Trump International golf course, Qatar once gifted Trump a plane worth $400 million, and the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Saudi Arabia have collectively invested billions of dollars in Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner’s company, Affinity Capital.
When Trump took office as President of the United States for the first time in 2017, he chose Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia, as the destination for his first foreign visit.
Saudi Arabia had particularly tense relations with Trump's predecessor, Democratic President Joe Biden. Do you still remember the awkward fist bump between Biden and the Saudi Crown Prince in 2022?
Gulf leaders are also deeply suspicious of former President Barack Obama, who failed to take punitive action against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad over his use of poison gas.
But this year's war with Iran has changed people's views on Trump.
As one commentator put it: "President Trump has set the Gulf region on fire." He was referring to the war that broke out on February 28. Gulf countries are still worried that Trump may once again provoke war, leading to Iranian retaliation and causing devastating damage to the critical infrastructure of these countries.
How the Iran War Affects Election Results
Rebecka Pieder, BBC Washington correspondent
U.S. Vice President Vance said that he believed that the Republican Party's heavy defeat in the election was caused by the war in Iran.
The war significantly increased the living expenses of the American people, especially the price of gasoline.
When Trump ran for a second presidential term in 2024, he pledged to lower gas prices below $2 a gallon. But the average price this October was $4.31 per gallon. He also promised that if he returns to the White House, there will be no new war.
However, just one day before the midterm elections, the United States launched another air strike on an Iranian island. Trump told reporters he had no regrets about starting the war.
Regarding the midterm election results, Iran's chief negotiator with the United States said that the American people have "said no to war."
But Iran's Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei said in a statement that he did not believe the election results would lead to a change in U.S. policy.
In an interview with CBS News today, the BBC's US news partner, Trump said the conflict would end "when I say it's over."
China
BBC China correspondent Laura Bicker
As the results of the U.S. midterm elections are announced one after another, China will see opportunities.
The relationship between Beijing and Washington is the focus of great power competition in this century. As Trump prepares to visit China later this month, Xi Jinping, who is set to host him, may think he has the upper hand in the contest.
Trump has imposed tariffs on Chinese goods imported into the United States, hoping to protect American manufacturers from competition from cheap Chinese products.
However, Xi Jinping took countermeasures and also significantly increased tariffs, making Trump's plan backfired. The result has been rising prices in the U.S. for many goods, including small items like toys and clothes that ordinary families buy occasionally to enjoy life.
China has also stopped buying U.S. agricultural products, hitting farmers in states where Trump supporters are concentrated.
The trade war eventually came to an end with a truce agreement reached by both sides, but the agreement will expire at the end of January next year. China may believe that Trump is dealing with the shock of his defeat in the midterm elections and wants a deal.
Xi Jinping will see this as an opportunity to negotiate a deal more favorable to China.
Russia
BBC Russia Editor Steve Rosenberg
"We sincerely hope that Trump will continue his efforts to promote peace," Russian President Vladimir Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Russian media.
Peskov said: "There are currently some ideas" and "a new round of tripartite negotiations will be held soon."
He was referring to trilateral talks planned to take place next week in Abu Dhabi between Russia, Ukraine and the United States.
"We have seen the success of Melania Trump in her humanitarian peace work," Peskov continued.
He was referring to a recent humanitarian operation in the Russian-occupied Ukrainian town of Oleshky.
"We hope all these efforts will continue," he continued.
If peace efforts ultimately come up short, Moscow is likely to blame Ukraine and Europe, as it has in the past.
Now, Russia may also blame the Democratic Party and the midterm elections.
But Russia probably won’t blame Trump because the Kremlin has invested a lot of effort in its relationship with Trump and Moscow clearly still wants to develop economic cooperation with the Trump administration.
Media reaction around the world
BBC International Media Watch
For people in Ukraine, Iran and across the Middle East, the focus of the U.S. midterm elections is not only on U.S. domestic politics, but also on the impact the results may have on ongoing conflicts.
In Moscow, the Kremlin has publicly expressed hope that Trump will continue to work to broker an end to the war, and Russia and Ukraine are expected to hold talks again this month.
At the same time, Iran's leadership and government-linked media described the Democratic Party's electoral progress as the American people's rejection of Trump's war policies.
Iranian media emphasized that they believe that a military confrontation with Tehran is causing Trump to pay an increasingly high political price.
Edited by Isabel Shaw and Andrew Webb, BBC International.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Democrats will limit Trump's military action against Iran for the rest of his term
Likely · Within months
China will strive to reach a new agreement that is more beneficial to China before the trade agreement expires in January next year
Likely · Within months
Russia and Ukraine to hold trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi next month
Very likely · Within weeks
Wang Yi, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Foreign Minister, met in Beijing on the 4th respectively with Vietnamese Foreign Minister Le Huaizhong and Cambodian Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Prak Sokhonn, who were attending the 11th Lancang-Mekong Cooperation Foreign Ministers' Meeting. The two sides exchanged views on deepening the construction of a China-Vietnam community with a shared future, the construction of an all-weather China-Cambodia community with a shared future in the new era, high-level exchanges and pragmatic cooperation.
South Africa held local government elections on the 4th. As of 17:00 local time, about 12 million voters across the country had completed voting, with Gauteng Province having the largest number of voters, about 3 million people. Voting will begin at 7 a.m. and end at 9 p.m. Registered voters who are still in line will be allowed to continue voting. There are a total of 23,696 polling stations across the country, with approximately 29.23 million registered voters. The election results will affect the future composition and governance of local governments.
Iran's Supreme Leader Mujtaba said that the results of the U.S. midterm elections will not change the U.S.'s hostility toward Iran. If the U.S. aggression repeats, Iran's response will be broader and the scale of the war will be larger. U.S. President Trump said that it is up to him to decide when the war in Iran will end, and that he does not regret starting the war in Iran and will decide whether to escalate actions based on the situation. Mediators such as Qatar and Egypt continue to mediate, but the two sides have obvious differences on key issues such as lifting oil sanctions, ending maritime blockades, and unfreezing funds. On the 4th local time, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed to have shot down a US military MQ-1 drone over Qeshm Island, while the United States claimed to have destroyed an Iranian surface-to-air missile launcher.

US and Chinese defence officials met in Washington for the first meeting of a Crisis Communications and Prevention Working Group, agreeing to advance practical communication measures and additional channels to reduce risks and manage crises between the two nations.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky awarded US First Lady Melania Trump the Order of Princess Olga, First Class, for her role in brokering a partial ceasefire enabling civilian evacuation from a Russian-occupied town.

A Canadian official says the country's push to reduce economic dependence on the US will continue despite President Donald Trump's Republican Party's midterm election defeat. Prime Minister Mark Carney maintains trade with the US will not return to pre-Trump normal and Canada must urgently diversify its trading relationships. US Democratic leaders have criticized Trump's trade war with Canada and called for reversal of sweeping tariffs affecting businesses on both sides of the border.