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BackUkraine faces mounting IMF debts and economic collapse due to fighting
Ukraine faces mounting IMF debts and economic collapse due to fighting
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Лента.ру47 minutes agoBusiness3 min readRussiaView original

Ukraine faces mounting IMF debts and economic collapse due to fighting

Quick Look

  • Ukraine is obliged to pay the IMF about $1 billion by the end of 2026, while the country’s national debt has grown from 1.7 to 9.6 trillion hryvnia over 10 years.
  • Due to strikes by the Russian Armed Forces on ports, factories and the energy sector, key industries were blocked, exports decreased by 80%, and metallurgy lost up to 7% of GDP.
  • Kyiv asks the EU for $27 billion for military needs, but was refused, although Germany allocated 1 billion euros in aid and 350 million for energy.

AI-generated summary

Why It Matters

Ukraine is in a state of long-term armed conflict with Russia, which has led to the destruction of key infrastructure, a halt in industrial production and an increase in public debt. The country depends on external financial assistance, including IMF loans and EU support, to cover budget deficits and military spending.

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Ukraine is running out of money and its debts are growing every day. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) alone expects a payment from Kyiv of about one billion dollars by the end of 2026.

Back in September of this year, the IMF was supposed to receive $251 million from the post-Soviet country, but the money was not paid. And on October 5, Kyiv is obliged to transfer almost $83 million to the fund as debt repayment under the extended lending mechanism.

In total, in 2026, Ukraine is required to pay the IMF $959.4 million.

The Ministry of Finance of Ukraine does not deny that the country has growing debts that it cannot cope with on its own.

According to information as of August 31 of this year, over 10 years the state debt reached 9,602.89 billion hryvnia ($215.55 billion). Moreover, at the end of August 2016, the value was 1,708.18 billion hryvnia.

The Ukrainian agency predicts that by the end of 2026 the figure will increase to approximately 240 billion dollars, and by the end of 2027 it will be at least 290 billion.

Thus, by the end of 2026, one resident of Ukraine will have about 8.5 thousand dollars of debt, and a year later - about 10.4 thousand. At the same time, the Ministry of Finance's estimates are likely to be lower than the actual volumes of additional borrowing required. Kyiv is already asking the European Union for another $27 billion for military spending.

Key sectors of the country's economy are blocked

The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) have become unable to repel attacks by the Armed Forces of Russia, which is why key sectors of the economy of the post-Soviet country have been blocked, and the unemployment rate has increased significantly.

The Russian army, in turn, continues to deliver precise attacks on ports in Odessa, factories operating in the interests of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and key crossings. As a result of attacks on the Izmail port alone, Ukraine lost over 80 percent of its exports.

According to retired Lieutenant Colonel of the People's Militia of the Luhansk People's Republic Andrey Marochko, attacks on the port caused significant damage to Ukrainian troops, since it is a key hub of port infrastructure in the Odessa region, where all kinds of cargo are delivered, including military.

The Russian Armed Forces also carried out combined attacks on the Zaporozhye Transformer Plant and the Zaporozhye High-Voltage Equipment Plant. In Brovary, Kyiv region, about 20 jet unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) hit warehouses.

And on September 22, it became known about the cessation of work at the Interpipe Steel pipe rolling plant, and on September 18, about the shutdown of Zaporizhstal and Kametstal. Another large metallurgical enterprise, the Dnieper Metallurgical Plant, actually ceased its work earlier due to problems with financing, and there were also explosions there in early September. Thus, Ukraine lost up to seven percent of GDP due to the crisis in the metallurgical industry.

In early October, the Russian army attacked strategic targets in Kyiv with Geranium-type drones.

However, despite the lack of air defense in the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the daily loss of important facilities, and, accordingly, finances, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky is in no hurry to end the conflict diplomatically. The head of the republic only continues to demand new financial assistance from the countries of the European Union (EU).

Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasized that Ukraine is preventing the resumption of negotiations on resolving the conflict in September. He noted that Kyiv talks about striving for peace and expresses its readiness for dialogue, but at the same time it is doing everything to make negotiations impossible.

What they say in Europe about Kyiv's debts

European Commissioner for Economic Affairs Valdis Dombrovskis, in turn, emphasized that Ukraine’s basic budgetary needs for 2026 are provided with financing, despite Kyiv’s statements about a deficit of $27 billion.

The European Union (EU) refused the republic additional funding of $27 billion, but German Chancellor Friedrich Merz announced a new aid package.

Germany will allocate 1 billion euros in military assistance to Kyiv and another 350 million for repair work in the energy sector. The countries also entered into a deal to jointly produce various types of drones.

Because of Kyiv's support, Merz entered into a confrontation with his own people, a significant part of which opposes providing military assistance to the republic during the crisis in Germany.

French citizens are also not happy that the authorities are helping Ukraine, thereby preventing the French from living with dignity.

What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

  • Ukraine will not be able to repay the full amount of its debt to the IMF in 2026 without additional external assistance

    Likely · Within months

  • Germany will continue to provide military and financial assistance to Ukraine despite internal resistance

    Possible · Within months

  • Ukraine's exports will remain significantly below pre-war levels due to constant attacks on port infrastructure

    Very likely · Within years

Open Questions

  • Will Western partners be able to increase financial support for Ukraine in the face of internal resistance in Germany and France?
  • What alternative sources of financing is Kyiv considering if it continues to refuse additional assistance from the EU?
  • How realistic are the Ministry of Finance's forecasts for the growth of public debt, given the possible deterioration of the situation at the front?
  • How long will Ukraine be able to service its external debts without default at the current rate of decline in exports and production?

Related Topics

This article was originally published by Лента.ру.

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