Lula da Silva loses first round election to Flávio Bolsonaro in Brazil
Quick Look
In the first round of Brazil's presidential election, incumbent Lula da Silva won fewer votes than expected and trails challenger Flávio Bolsonaro, whose victory could mark a further rightward shift in Latin America.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
The first round of Brazil's presidential election showed an unexpected lead for Flávio Bolsonaro over incumbent Lula da Silva, while conservative forces in Congress and the Senate made significant gains.
Drums and chants on Praça São Salvador in Rio de Janeiro - where Lula da Silva's supporters dressed in red traditionally watch the counting. But there is actually nothing to celebrate. The result doesn't look good for the incumbent president: he got fewer votes in the first round than expected and, above all, fewer than challenger Flávio Bolsonaro.
“Man, this is really difficult,” says Brazilian Mauricio Rizzo. "Flávio Bolsonaro must not return under any circumstances; he would pardon his father and subjugate the institutions. This Bolsonaro rabble must never come to power again."
Simone Lourenco is also discouraged by the election results: "My concern is that even if Lula wins in the runoff, the Congress, i.e. the representatives and senators, has moved even further to the right."
Lula's party records major losses
Will a Bolsonaro return to power in 2027? That will be decided in a runoff election in three weeks. Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of ex-President Jair Bolsonaro, who was convicted of attempting a coup, is the clear favorite in the runoff election.
Incumbent Lula da Silva tried to signal composure when he appeared in front of the cameras shortly after 9 p.m. local time. "The result is often unexpected: you never get everything you wanted." He was actually convinced that he would win the election in the first round. Now a new election campaign is beginning, said Lula.
But it was a discourse in front of a backdrop of losers. Behind him, visibly depressed politicians, most of whom had already lost their elections, applauded. In this vote, Bolsonaro's liberal party won wide majorities in both the Senate and the House of Representatives as well as for governorships. There are also other family members: Michelle, Carlos and Jair Renan Bolsonaro.
The election campaign revolved around debt and the cost of living
Brazil has already moved further to the right. Accordingly, Flavio Bolsonaro appeared confidently in front of the press in Brasília - in the middle of a crowd of people on the street - via live stream. "This is the end of the era of the left-wing Labor Party, it is sealed." All that remains of the left is "a record of murdered women, of indebted Brazilians, of high taxes, of hopelessness."
Although Brazil's economy is growing, the cost of living is also rising. Eight out of ten Brazilians are now over-indebted. It was a central issue in the election campaign - as was rising crime.
"I'm a small business owner and I suffer from the left," says Viviane Oliveira. "The people are awake and ready to fight: we will change the history of our country."
Shift to the right in Brazil - like in neighboring countries?
In any case, Flávio Bolsonaro - the number one son, as his father calls him - has consolidated himself as a strong candidate, although just a few months ago he was considered to have little charisma.
So far, the rule in Brazil has been: Whoever was ahead in the first round also wins the runoff. If Bolsonaro is successful, Latin America's largest democracy and economy would also move to the right - and join the bloc of Trump allies in the region who have recently won elections from Argentina to Colombia.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Flávio Bolsonaro wins the runoff against Lula da Silva in three weeks.
Likely · Within weeks
If Bolsonaro wins, Brazil will join the bloc of Trump allies in Latin America.
Likely · Within weeks
Open Questions
- Can Lula da Silva make up the deficit in the runoff election three weeks later?
- How will the new right-wing majority in Congress affect a possible Lula government?
- What specific policy changes does Flávio Bolsonaro plan to make if he wins?


