The results of the U.S. midterm elections are coming out one after another. The Democratic Party has gained control of the House and Senate, and the Republican Party has suffered a major setback. The outside world is paying attention to whether the U.S. policy toward Taiwan will change. Ye Yaoyuan, chair professor of international studies at the University of St. Thomas in the United States, believes that the general direction will not change. Competition between the United States and China has long been a consensus between the two parties, and Taiwan's strategic position is unshakable. However, in the face of a major change in Congress, Taiwan's diplomatic team must immediately initiate substantive contacts to facilitate the continued promotion of the Taiwan Benefits Act.
Ye Yaoyuan believes that the Democratic Party's victory in the midterm elections will not change the U.S. policy toward China and the U.S. policy toward Taiwan. The current competition between the United States and China is a consensus between the two parties. Taiwan's strategic importance will not change just because the Democratic Party takes control of Congress. Therefore, in general, we do not need to worry about whether the U.S. policy toward Taiwan and China will change.
However, Ye Yaoyuan reminded that many Republican senators, representatives and even governors in the United States have been "elected out", so Taiwan's diplomatic team needs to further contact these politicians to help them understand Taiwan. Not all the new senators and representatives have a deep understanding of Taiwan. In the future, if these people are to push the Taiwan-facilitating bill in Congress, we must take action.
Ye Yaoyuan analyzed that the main reasons why the Republican Party will lose and the Democratic Party will win are the unstoppable inflation at this stage, rising energy prices, and the public’s distrust of Trump’s foreign policy (especially the Iran conflict). American voters are purely economic voters. When the economic situation in the general environment is not good, they will definitely use their votes to "teach" the ruling party. Therefore, the ruling party will probably lose every midterm election. After all, most of the time the economy does not perform as well as the people expected, not to mention that this year's inflation is extremely bad for the middle and lower class people.
Ye Yaoyuan pointed out that every election in the United States is an action to balance the left and right sides through the force of a pendulum, but every time the balance is balanced because the other side has gone too far, or disgusted the people, this is a very healthy democratic process, and it is also a process that most democratic countries must go through. On the other hand, Taiwan's elections are basically about choosing the country's survival. If the vast majority of people in Taiwan identify with their own country and reject the influence of the only country in the world that wants to invade Taiwan, then we can return to normal national policy discussions and have an opposition party that is not thinking about how to give Taiwan to China.
In addition, Ye Yaoyuan believes that whether U.S. President Trump is "lame" will not affect his personal administrative style, but the Republican Party will definitely worry that this tragedy will continue into the 2028 election, so the Republican Party will also put pressure on Trump within the Republican Party to further adopt different policy approaches to resolve the Iran conflict and control inflation. Will these pressures have any impact on Trump, who has no next candidate? He finds it quite difficult. Trump may still be Trump, and the possibility of his policy changes is low.
