As the Democratic Party overwhelmingly retakes both the Senate and the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections in the United States, the rise and fall of power sectors in Washington has also directly touched the sensitive nerves of Europe. POLITICO political news network analyzes the impact that the U.S. midterm elections may have on transatlantic relations.
Estimates from mainstream media including CNN, RealClearPolitics and the New York Times as of late night on the 3rd showed that the Democratic Party would win at least 54 seats in the 100-seat Senate and at least 228 seats in the 435-seat House of Representatives. RealClearPolitics cited market prediction platform Polymarket to estimate that the Democratic Party is expected to have 250 seats in the House of Representatives and 55 seats in the Senate.
● Europe is afraid of becoming Trump’s punching bag
POLITICO quoted senior observers as saying that the possibility of Europe becoming Trump’s punching bag is not low. Wolfgang Ischinger, a former senior German diplomat and long-time chairman of the Munich Security Conference (MSC), warned: "We must be mentally prepared that what is coming may not be a more harmonious transatlantic relationship, but more friction, or even more demands from Trump on Europe."
After the Democrats take control of Congress, they can certainly restrain the White House through the budget appropriation process, launch more rigorous hearings and investigations, and attach stricter conditions to legislation. However, the President of the United States has great discretion in foreign, defense and trade policies in accordance with the Constitution, and Trump has not shied away from using executive orders or controversial legal means to bypass Congress in the past.
Phil Gordon, former U.S. Vice President Harris' national security adviser, said: "Trump has the power to command the military, control tariffs and trade negotiations, and has a voice advantage. Even if the Democrats win both houses of Congress, he can still veto bills."
Reports indicate that this means that Trump, who is lame at home, may want to use the international stage to prove that he is still the boss, and the confrontation between the United States and Europe may intensify. Trump and the "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) camp have often targeted Europe in the past; now, in the remaining two years of his term, Trump's pressure on Europe may only "step to the bottom of the accelerator."
● Ukraine can take a breather
Most Democratic Party heavyweights have always supported aid to Ukraine. Once they regain control of Congress, they can begin to create favorable conditions to force the Trump administration to assist Ukraine.
However, Bronwen Maddox, director of Chatham House, reminded that the outside world should not expect Ukrainian President Zelensky to "decompress in an instant."
She said: "Even if the Democratic Party decides to start sending more supplies and funds to Kiev, it will often take months or even years to complete the process." Currently facing the continued bombing by the Russian army, Ukraine urgently needs Patriot missiles and other air defense systems to survive the harsh winter, and it may be difficult to solve the urgent need in terms of timeliness.
● Trump-style peace may bypass allies to do business with Russia
Trump has always portrayed himself as a peaceful president, claiming that he has ended eight international conflicts. He once said that the Russia-Ukraine war should have been the easiest conflict to reach a peace agreement, but now he increasingly blames Ukrainian President Zelensky for the failure to reach an agreement.
Former U.S. diplomat Kurt Volker believes that actions to withdraw from NATO or significantly reduce the number of U.S. troops stationed in Europe will not receive support from the democratic and Republican parties and the mainstream media at home. Trump often "makes loud noises but little rain." However, it is not ruled out that Trump may still ignore the protests in Kiev and Europe, unilaterally lift sanctions and restart business transactions with Russia.
"I would not be surprised if he unilaterally instructs the U.S. Treasury Department to stop enforcing sanctions, seek more energy deals with Russia, and has even been discussing with Putin about allowing large American companies to return to the Russian market," Fokker said bluntly.
● High energy prices may not be resolved in the short term and may impact the European election season next year
For Trump, whether he restarts military strikes to force Tehran to make concessions, or simply withdraws and throws the mess out of the way, Trump has almost no perfect solution. If the resumption of military operations after the election leads to another surge in oil prices, it will be extremely unpopular in the United States, but considering that a crushing defeat in the midterm elections is a foregone conclusion, the White House will have no electoral burden in the short term.
Unless Trump can reach a peace agreement with Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the war will continue to push up electricity prices and living costs in Europe, which will in turn impact the political situation of European countries. In particular, the four core EU members of France, Italy, Poland, and Spain will hold national elections in 2027.
● Washington is mired in political strife and has no time to care.
Analysts believe that there is another possibility that the U.S. political arena is caught in a fierce political struggle, and Washington is busy with internal conflicts, leaving Trump and the Democratic Party with no time to focus on other matters, including foreign policy.
Although former Vice President Kamala Harris only last month called on Democrats not to impeach Trump again, some within the party are urging them to avoid falling into endless political melee and focus legislation on the cost of living, raising the federal minimum wage and rectifying the atmosphere in public offices. But historically, it has been difficult for the Washington government to avoid fierce political battles.
POLITICO reporter John F. Harris predicted that the political dispute in Washington may spread to various fields, including fierce competition within the two major political parties. He said: "Both major political parties have their own problems, and they must also think about how to impress voters in the political situation in the post-Trump era."
