Strait of Hormuz: The effectiveness of the Iranian blockade declines and the flow of oil continues

The Strait of Hormuz card is still one of the most prominent pressure tools that Iran possesses in the war, after Tehran, shortly after the outbreak of the conflict, began obstructing the movement of ships through the strait, which affected the global trade movement. The United States responded by imposing a naval blockade, but Iranian control over the waterway has been gradually declining over the past weeks, while crude oil exports from the region have returned to levels approaching pre-war levels.

According to a report published by Der Spiegel magazine, major oil producers in the region were able to continue exporting their shipments via pipelines and alternative ports, coinciding with a noticeable increase in the quantities of oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz. As for Iranian exports, they have declined almost completely.

According to data from the trade information service Kpler, at least 16.5 million barrels of oil per day left the region during September, a level close to the pre-war average, excluding Iranian oil. Goldman Sachs estimated that crude oil exports reached about 19 million barrels per day last week.

Der Spiegel quoted Gregory Breu, an expert on Iran and oil affairs at the Eurasia Group, as saying that the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz “has been overcome,” explaining that the increase in transport traffic is due in particular to the success of the United States in escorting oil tankers through the strait and reducing the effectiveness of Iranian attacks in the sea corridor.

But this American role comes at a great cost, as two American aircraft carriers are currently stationed in the region, while a third carrier is supposed to join them. Oil tankers cross the strait through Omani territorial waters, with support from the US Navy, fighter aircraft and combat helicopters.

Transferring oil from one ship to another has also become more important, although it requires additional time and costs. Ships from Gulf states transport a large portion of cargo through the Strait of Hormuz, often with their identification devices turned off, before they reach safer waters on the other side of the strait, where other tankers who avoid the risk of crossing the sea lane wait and deliver cargo.

In the same context, The New York Times reported, based on confidential information from a Western security apparatus, that Iran launches dozens of drones and missiles weekly at commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, but the attacks often miss their targets. According to this information, at least four commercial ships were subjected to Iranian attacks during the last ten days.

The Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization, Arsenio Dominguez, said last week that the strait “is not open to navigation because it is unsafe.” On Wednesday, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard confirmed the attacks, and said that Iran targets sites in the Strait of Hormuz every 24 hours, adding that Tehran prevents ships from crossing, but the United States has not responded to that for some time.

According to the report, since the beginning of September, the Pentagon has not announced attacks on Iran or Iranian ships. Iran analyst Gregory Brough believes that the rise in oil exports may have led the Iranian government to believe that launching retaliatory attacks would not achieve significant gains for it.

Despite the increase in the amount of oil coming out of the region, prices have not decreased significantly so far. Der Spiegel explains that the risks are still high, while many dealers doubt the ability of the current transport movement to continue for a long period without reaching a new agreement. The continuing threats by the Houthis in Yemen at the Bab al-Mandab Strait and the Red Sea, along with the possibility of Iran targeting more oil infrastructure in the region, also increase market concerns.