Israel’s election is over, why is Netanyahu’s ability to govern still unresolved?

Israel has been led by a coalition government since its founding in 1948, but will the next government include current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu?

This is the first general election since the Hamas-led attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, and exit polls show that there is no clear winner.

Two Israeli radio and television organizations predict that Yashar, led by former military commander Gadi Eisenkot, and three other Jewish opposition parties in its "Change Bloc" will win 51 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, the same number as Netanyahu's Likud and its far-right and ultra-Orthodox Jewish allies. A poll by a third broadcaster showed Netanyahu leading by three seats.

Much will depend on the role played by the two Arab parties, which are predicted to win a record 18 or 19 seats.

Voter turnout on October 27 was the highest in decades.

But what happens next?

How does Israel’s electoral system work?

The Knesset, the Israeli parliament, has 120 seats, which means any government must hold 61 seats to gain a majority.

Israel uses a proportional representation electoral system, so governments have historically been coalitions composed of multiple parties.

Here is the distribution of seats in this Knesset before the election when Netanyahu’s coalition was in power.

Below is the current situation.

Can Netanyahu form a government?

After the final results of Tuesday's election are confirmed, Israel's president will invite the leaders of the parties he believes have the best chance of success to form a governing coalition after consultations with all political factions. This process may take several weeks.

Typically, the president appoints the leader of the party with the most seats in parliament to form a cabinet. The current president is Isaac Herzog. But this is not a hard and fast rule: for example, after the 2009 election, then-President Shimon Peres first invited Netanyahu to form a government, even though his Likud party won fewer seats than its rival Kadima.

The first person nominated by the president to form a cabinet has up to 42 days to form a government. If that fails, another party leader will get a chance.

If no party can obtain a majority of seats, a minority government may govern. If that doesn't work either, new elections could be held, with Netanyahu remaining as caretaker prime minister until then.

Which political parties are in the race?

Forecasts show Netanyahu's Likud and Eisenkot's Yashar party will become the two largest parties in parliament, but they will need the support of other parties to form a coalition government. Netanyahu leads a coalition of right-wing and religious parties.

He first came to power in 1996. In snap elections held after the assassination of Yitzhak Rabin, he became Israel's first directly elected prime minister and has been in power for most of the past 30 years.

Eisenkot leads an opposition coalition made up of center-right and left-leaning parties, united largely by the common goal of replacing Netanyahu.

The coalition includes former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett's B'Yachad party.

Two other Arab political parties are running in the election. About one-fifth of Israel's population is Arab. In theory, they could become a key force in determining who gets to govern. But all but one of the major Jewish parties have ruled out co-governing with them.

When will I know the results?

Preliminary results are expected to be announced on October 28. An estimated 600,000 absentee ballots, mostly cast by military personnel, accounted for about 10% of the total, won't all be counted until Thursday. The official results are scheduled to be announced on November 4.

The coalition negotiation process could take weeks, if not months. After the March 2021 election, a government was not formed until June, with Bennett and Yair Lapid reaching a power-sharing agreement.

At that time, Netanyahu was first given the opportunity to form a government, but failed to form a viable governing coalition.