The Democratic Party regains control of the US Congress. Analysis: Will focus on Taiwan to pressure Trump to change China policy

The results of the U.S. midterm elections have been roughly announced, with the Democratic Party strongly regaining control of the House and Senate. A former White House official pointed out today that the Democratic Party is expected to hold hearings on issues such as support for Taiwan and chip exports to pressure Trump to change his China policy. He also said that Trump will still be committed to maintaining the stability of U.S.-China relations, and arms sales to Taiwan may make progress next year.

The Republican Party of US President Donald Trump suffered a disastrous defeat in yesterday's midterm elections. The Democrats won control of the House of Representatives and the Senate. The war in Iran and the rising cost of living were seen as the reasons for the Republican's defeat. The outside world is paying attention to how this "blue wave" (blue is the color of the Democratic Party) will affect Trump's administration in the next two years.

Dennis Wilder, who served as China Affairs Director and East Asia Affairs Senior Director of the White House National Security Council during the George W. Bush administration, accepted an exclusive interview with a reporter from Central News Agency today and said that in terms of foreign policy, the US president has considerable autonomy.

●Trump hopes to end the Iran war quickly and is expected to conduct substantive peace talks soon

Regarding the U.S.-Iran war, Wedening believes that Trump wants to end it as soon as possible, which may prompt him to engage in stronger negotiations with Iran. "I'm sure he's going to face pressure from members of his own party," especially someone like U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance who is interested in running for the next president.

He analyzed that Trump will try to reach an agreement with Iran in a relatively short period of time, which is expected to be before the end of this year. Iran's calculations are also waiting until after the mid-term elections, because they believe that they may be able to reach a better agreement with Trump after the elections.

"I don't think we have to wait too long before we see substantive peace talks," he said.

●The Democratic Party is expected to hold a Taiwan-related hearing to put pressure on Trump to change his China policy

In terms of U.S.-China relations, Wedening said he does not think Trump will face pressure from within the Republican Party to significantly change China policy, but the Democratic Party may exert pressure in this regard.

He pointed out that the top Democratic congressman Ro Khanna of the "Special Committee on Strategic Competition between the United States and the Communist Party of China" may become the chairman of the committee next, and he may be seen holding many hearings on issues such as U.S. support for Taiwan and chip sales to China. He also admitted that he was not sure whether this would make a big difference to Trump's policies.

Regarding the US$14 billion arms sales to Taiwan that are yet to be approved by the Trump administration, Wedening said that this will be an area where Democrats will severely criticize Trump. He is expected to see hearings on this issue, questioning whether the Trump administration provides sufficient support to Taiwan and why it takes so long to evaluate this arms sale.

He analyzed that considering that Trump is expected to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping again at the Group of 20 (G20) summit in Florida in December, it is very unlikely that Trump will promote arms sales to Taiwan before the end of this year.

●Trump is committed to maintaining stability between the United States and China. There may be progress in arms sales to Taiwan early next year.

Early next year is a possible time point. Weidening said that if the meetings between Trump and Xi at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit and the G20 Summit in Shenzhen, China, at the end of this year go well, "it is foreseeable that Trump will decide that this is a good time to arrange arms sales to Taiwan."

Weidening predicts that Trump will still work hard to maintain stable relations between the United States and China. "Unless China does something that angers him, he will continue on this path." At the same time, Trump will maintain the United States’ strong defense capabilities in East Asia and continue to put pressure on China in high-tech, artificial intelligence (AI) and other fields.

He also said that there is no doubt that the U.S. Congress will pay attention to Taiwan and China policy in the future.

In terms of tariffs, Weidening said that Trump is expected to continue to implement tariff policies within the scope of the law, but will not impose large-scale tariffs. "Existing measures will be the future state."

Regarding the relationship between the Trump administration and the new Congress controlled by the Democratic Party, Wedening believes that Trump will be open to cooperation in certain areas, including data centers, AI supervision, etc., but at the same time, tensions between the two parties will also exist.

"In the relationship between Congress and the White House, the chemistry between individuals often has a big impact on whether they can find ways to work together," he said.