The U.S. midterm elections are changing! Scholars warn: Taiwanese AI and semiconductor companies may be subject to local restrictions when going to the United States

The results of the U.S. midterm elections were announced. Not only did the federal Congress show a "big change" between one party and the other, but the territory of many state governments also flipped. In addition, 10 states in the United States held referendums on public power management AI data centers. The National Policy Research Institute held a symposium on "The Post-2026 U.S. Midterm Election Situation and Impact on Taiwan" today (5th). Scholars warn that the new governor of Texas, an important gathering place for Taiwanese businessmen, has an unfriendly attitude toward the AI ​​industry. In addition, the U.S. infrastructure is old, and residents are backing data centers due to skyrocketing water and electricity prices and pollution. In the future, Taiwan's AI and semiconductor industries may face strict constraints from U.S. local governments and grassroots politics when deploying in the United States.

Tian Hongmao, chairman and dean of the Academy of National Policy, pointed out in his speech that there is an issue in this midterm election that has not received high attention but is relevant to Taiwan-US high-tech cooperation, which is the establishment of an AI data center. According to his statistics, a total of 10 states have held referendums this time on whether to use public power more actively to manage AI and set rules. He specifically pointed out that Texas is the next most important state after Arizona for Taiwanese businesses to move investment and industrial clusters to the United States. Now the governor of Texas has been replaced by a Republican governor who is not friendly to the AI ​​industry and is a Hispanic governor. In the past, he advocated limited management of AI development and a strict approval process. The impact of this change on Taiwanese business, technology industry and semiconductor industry supply is worth exploring.

Wu Chongli, a distinguished researcher and director of the Institute of Political Science at Academia Sinica, also echoed the sentiment. From the New Deal in the 1930s to the 1960s, the United States had almost no large-scale power and water infrastructure. Nowadays, a large number of data centers are being built in Texas, Ohio, North and South Carolina, and Georgia, and are located next to ordinary residents. This has caused local water and electricity prices to skyrocket and caused pollution. Residents "suffered the consequences before they benefited." This is an important reason for the Republican Party's defeat in Texas this time. He reminded that the United States adopts a federal system, and local governments have considerable decision-making power in land use, building permits, energy supply, and environmental control. If Taiwan's AI development is moved to the United States in the future, it will be restricted by the local government and local politics.

Regarding economic, trade and science and technology policies at the federal level, Li Chunze, director of the Economic and Legal Research Center of the China Economic Research Institute, bluntly stated that the Democratic Party's control of the House and Senate will not reverse tariffs and science and technology policies. Taiwan-US trade and investment will increase, and the trend of high economic integration of science and technology cooperation will remain unchanged, and investment tools in the United States can be expected to shift from Trump's "stick" to more "carrot" incentives and incentives like the chip law.

However, Li Chun also emphasized that the level of congressional participation will be significantly increased, and it may require a review of the administrative agreement and set limits on the amendments to the IEEPA (International Emergency Economic Powers Act), Section 122, 232 National Security Clauses and Section 301 that Trump abused. He emphasized that the Democratic Party may believe that the United States' alliance with the Indo-Pacific trade disputes, including Taiwan, is more meaningful than treating everyone as an enemy; only on China's strategic competition, the two parties have a high degree of consensus. In the future, the export control of high-end and advanced AI chips will only increase, not decrease, and establish a more institutional benchmark.

In response to the ecological reshuffle in the U.S. Congress, Gao Shuotai, former representative to the United States and senior adviser to the Academy of National Policy, said that in the face of the "blue tsunami" in U.S. politics, Taiwan, as an important stakeholder, must plan ahead. He took stock that currently 8 of the 30 members of the "Taiwan Connection" in the Senate are about to leave, and nearly 30 of the 130 members of the House of Representatives are about to leave. In addition, due to the impact of the epidemic, Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, and Trump's remarks on Taiwan and overtures to Beijing in recent years, the number and number of congressional delegations has dropped significantly. How units in the United States can lock in the new Congress to win cross-party support is an urgent issue.

Fu Zemin, an assistant researcher at the Institute of Politics of Academia Sinica, analyzed that this election was a "retrospective vote". More than 60% of voters across party lines believed that tariffs would harm the economy. In addition, the eight-month war with Iran pushed up oil prices and commodity prices, making voters cast a vote of no confidence in Trump. Wu Chongli also added that under a divided government, Congress will spend more energy supervising the president on domestic affairs, while supervision on foreign affairs and military affairs will be weakened. Trump's China policy will not be softened as a result, and our national security team must be cautious in dealing with it.