Randall Schriver, chairman of the U.S. Institute for Indo-Pacific Security (IIPS) and former U.S. Assistant Secretary of War for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs, said today (20th) that Taiwanese media reports that U.S. troops will withdraw from the first island chain only reflect the views of a few people. In fact, the United States is making every effort to strengthen the deployment of the first island chain, including building an Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) base in the Philippines, holding the largest-ever "Balkank" joint exercise, and strengthening cooperation with Japan in the southwestern islands.
The Mainland Affairs Council, the National Defense Academy and the National Science Council held an international symposium on "Mainland China's Development Trends and Impacts under International Political and Economic Changes" today. After delivering a keynote speech, Schrix responded to questions and said that many media in Taiwan reported that the United States would retreat from the first island chain to the second island chain due to the rising threat from China. Schriver joked that if someone advocates that the US military should withdraw from the first island chain, it is best to tell Samuel Paparo, commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, because the US is now making every effort to work in the opposite direction, that is, to strengthen the first island chain.
Please read on...
He said that such reports amplify the research of a certain analyst or a small group of people, which are fringe views and are neither the mainstream consensus nor the policy direction of the US government. He pointed out that after the "Balikatan" exercise, the equipment will be left there; the closest territory to Taiwan is actually Japan's Yonaguni Island. The United States is developing relevant relations with Japan to ensure local access rights and prepare for possible blockade or use of force.
Shirley said that the United States is indeed building the second island chain. He recently visited Peleliu Island in Palau and saw that the United States is reactivating the local airport and port, but the purpose is to disperse its forces and diversify its deployment so that the US military can continue to project combat power to important areas such as the first island chain. It is not about retreating; he also said that he has not seen any authoritative person in the Ministry of War support the idea of withdrawing from the first island chain.
Asked whether the conflict in Iran affects U.S. combat readiness in the Indo-Pacific, Schrieff said that there is a bottom line for the U.S. military to mobilize assets from the Indo-Pacific, which is that it cannot affect the execution of existing combat plans in the region. As far as he knows, this bottom line is still observed; however, the United States is indeed in short supply of certain types of ammunition, and some of them are critical ammunition in the event of a crisis in the Indo-Pacific, and the inventory must be replenished and expanded. He also mentioned in his speech that the USS Lincoln was relocated due to the situation in the Middle East, and the United States currently has a window of aircraft carriers in the Indo-Pacific.
He also pointed out that China, Russia, North Korea and Iran are gradually forming what some call the "authoritarian axis". If something happens in the Taiwan Strait, Beijing does not need much repayment from these countries. For example, if Russia only needs to send one or two more ballistic missile submarines to the sea, the United States will have to send submarines to respond; North Korea can contain the US military stationed in South Korea as long as it feints on the border between North and South Korea.
Xue Ruifu also warned Beijing not to misjudge. He said that if Beijing was thinking that in 2027 it was only for the communist army to "get ready" and not to "take action", but now that the United States seems to be distracted elsewhere and short of ammunition, it may be able to take advantage of the opportunity.
