A strong earthquake shakes Panama... and a tsunami warning

Celia Flores, the wife of ousted Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, who is also imprisoned in the United States, suffers from “a very sensitive heart problem,” his son Nicolas Maduro Guerra told Agence France-Presse on Monday.

Guerra said that his stepmother “suffers from a very sensitive heart problem... She will turn seventy on October 15.” There are no conditions (in prison) that allow her to fully recover from an operation like the one she must undergo.”

The lawyer for Flores, who was arrested with her husband in a US military operation at the beginning of this year, requested in September that she be released from prison and placed under house arrest to receive treatment.

Brazilian Senator Flavio Bolsonaro faces President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in the presidential runoff, after the president's rival received about 47 percent of the valid votes in the first round on Sunday, beating the expectations of most private opinion polls.

The two leading candidates will qualify for the second round of voting on October 25, after topping a list of 12 candidates in a campaign that focused on concerns about high costs of living, corruption and insecurity in the daily lives of Brazilians.

Bolsonaro, the son of former right-wing president Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year prison sentence for planning a coup after losing the 2022 elections, is heading for a confrontation with the leftist Lula, who received 44.9 percent of the votes, with the results of about 99 percent of the votes reported.

Private polls conducted before the elections had expected Lula to advance in the first round by about three percentage points. A stronger-than-expected performance by Bolsonaro would support his campaign and could boost the Brazilian currency and stock market, which have risen on the prospect of a victory for the pro-business rival.

“The polling companies have made a big mistake,” said Robert Moja, co-founder of the Igarabi Research Institute. He added, "I expect that the runoff polls, which show a close tie, will also underestimate Bolsonaro."

The senator's victory would extend a wave of victories across Latin America achieved by right-wing candidates whose approach agrees with US President Donald Trump, while Lula's election for a new term could cause inconvenience to Washington, which disagrees with his government on trade and security.

Despite growing concerns about Brazil's public finances and slowing economic growth, the election campaign offered only limited political debate, with both leading candidates absent from the main television debates.

Surprising performance

Early Sunday, Bolsonaro told reporters in Rio de Janeiro that he was counting on “a protest vote from people who would have voted for another candidate, but who object to Lula.”

Tice Lima, 41, a lawyer who was on her way to vote in Sao Paulo, said her main goal was to remove Lula's Workers' Party from power. She added, "I do not think that Flavio is the best candidate, but I may decide to vote for him in the next few minutes," noting that she wished that the psychiatrist and writer Augusto Cori had been a more competitive candidate.

Fernando Temple, a 49-year-old management consultant, told Reuters that he voted for Flavio even though he had initially intended to vote for Romeo Zema, the former governor of Minas Gerais state.

Political analyst Rafael Favetti said, “The protest vote foretells what will happen in the runoff.” "While this should benefit Flavio Bolsonaro now, his potential for growth in the second round is diminished precisely because this support came already early," he added.

Economic obstacles

Despite declining inequality and unemployment, Lula has had difficulty winning the support of voters struggling with high costs of living, high household debt, the threat of street crime and growing gang activity.

Flavio Bolsonaro has sought to exploit concerns about the cost of living, while Lula has moved to ban online gambling and, as the race heats up, he has expanded social welfare programs and proposed new debt relief for families.

High spending and public debt, which exceeds 82 percent of GDP, have raised financial concerns that Brazil's next president will have to deal with. The government reduced its economic growth expectations this year and next to two percent and 2.3 percent, respectively.

"I voted for Brazil to start growing again," said Marciano de Souza e Silva, 52, a civil servant in Brasilia who voted for Flavio.

Marco Saravalli, chief investment officer at MSX Invest/Crivo Capital, said the strong performance of right-wing candidates in Sunday's Senate elections could enhance Bolsonaro's ability to pass economic reforms, implement a "more disciplined fiscal policy" and ultimately boost growth if elected.

A debate overshadowed by other issues

Scandals and fears of foreign interference before the vote largely overshadowed policy discussions during the election campaign. The policy debate has been overshadowed by the scandal surrounding the defunct Master Bank, which has involved much of Brazil's political class and fueled public anger over corruption.

Daniel Forcaro, who ran the bank, was arrested earlier this year and accused of involvement in a multi-billion-dollar fraud scheme. The investigation examined the banker's links to figures ranging from Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes to Flavio Bolsonaro, who is being investigated by federal police on money laundering charges linked to the case. The two denied the accusations against them.

On the other hand, Lula's allies warned that the Trump administration may refuse to recognize the election results if he wins, pointing to a failed attempt to send American officials to Brazil.

“What is at stake is the future of Brazil,” Lula said after casting his vote in Sao Bernardo do Campo, Sao Paulo state.

Trump did not officially announce his support for any candidate, but he hosted Senator Flavio Bolsonaro at the White House and praised him publicly.

Reuters reported on Wednesday that Brazilian intelligence officials briefed a French and German delegation on alleged American and Russian interference before the elections. The United States denied accusations of interference in Brazilian affairs.

Brazilian Electoral Commission President Cassio Nunes Marques said Sunday afternoon that the elections were taking place normally.