Is TSMC saying that its stock price will skyrocket or fall? Foreign media made "1 unexpected discovery"

TSMC will hold a legal meeting this afternoon (15th). (Reuters photo)

[Financial Channel/Comprehensive Report] TSMC will hold a press conference this afternoon (15th) and announce its third quarter financial report. Wall Street has high expectations for TSMC’s performance this quarter. Foreign media pointed out that TSMC has always exceeded market expectations and has the opportunity to further ignite the stock price. However, the report statistics also found that after the release of the last 4 financial reports, TSMC’s stock price fell or performed weakly three times, indicating that positive financial reports may not immediately drive up the stock price.

The investment media "The Motley Fool" reported that TSMC's positive financial report may not be immediately reflected in the stock price. TSMC releases its financial reports four times a year, which is a key time for investors to observe the operating status of this important global semiconductor company.

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As of around 10:10 a.m. Taipei time today (15th), TSMC’s stock price fell by 50 yuan, or 2.01%, to 2,440 yuan.

The report pointed out that although TSMC often delivers results that are better than market expectations, the stock price reaction after the release of recent financial reports is not always bright. After the release of the last four financial reports, the stock price fell or performed relatively weak three times, surprising the market.

However, if the observation time is extended, TSMC's stock price often still performs well about 1 to 2 months after the financial report is released. According to report analysis, this may be related to the long-term growth trend of the artificial intelligence (AI) semiconductor industry. Even if the stock price fails to rise sharply on the day of the financial report, there is still a chance to reflect the benefits brought by industry growth in the future.

The report pointed out that TSMC produces chips for major technology companies around the world and occupies a key position in the semiconductor supply chain. Especially as the demand for AI continues to heat up, the growth of related capital expenditures is also expected to drive TSMC's operations.

Wall Street analysts predict that TSMC's third-quarter revenue will increase by 47% annually, and the annual growth rate in the fourth quarter is expected to further climb to 54%. The growth rate in both quarters will be the fastest in the past three years. The report believes that if TSMC can maintain such growth momentum, the market's current stock price evaluation may not fully reflect its future operating performance.

In terms of valuation, TSMC’s current estimated price-to-earnings ratio is about 28 times, which is still within a relatively normal range. The report believes that considering that the company's revenue growth is expected to accelerate, the current stock price may still have room to rise.

In addition to revenue growth, the AI ​​industry continues to expand investment, which is also regarded as an important support for TSMC's market outlook. The report quoted Huida's relevant estimates as saying that the data center capital expenditures of the five major AI hyperscale cloud service providers (Hyperscalers) are expected to increase from nearly US$800 billion in 2026 to US$1.3 trillion in 2027.

Since TSMC provides manufacturing services to many computing chip manufacturers, the growth in related investments is expected to bring more order demand to the company.

In addition, TSMC has also reported plans to increase wafer foundry prices by 5% to 10% starting in 2027. The report pointed out that although this price adjustment measure will not be directly reflected in the third quarter financial report, if it is successfully implemented, it will help improve revenue and profit performance in the future.

"The Motley Fool" also pointed out that considering TSMC's huge production scale, customers have few alternatives, so this may further strengthen TSMC's bargaining power.

The report believes that regardless of whether TSMC’s stock price rises immediately after the release of the financial report, or whether it reflects the positive results after a delay of several months, its long-term investment prospects are quite clear.

With its leadership in chip manufacturing, TSMC is a stock worth buying right now. Without TSMC, the AI ​​industry will take on a completely different look, and its key position in the industry also makes it a target that investors cannot ignore.

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