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Back中國出口狂飆惹惱全球！ 貿易順差料逾1.2兆美元再創紀錄
中國出口狂飆惹惱全球！ 貿易順差料逾1.2兆美元再創紀錄
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自由时报1 hour agoBusiness2 min readChinaView translation

中國出口狂飆惹惱全球！ 貿易順差料逾1.2兆美元再創紀錄

中國出口貿易順差半導體

Quick Look

中國海關總署公布9月出口年增36.3%，進口年增31%，貿易順差達1335.3億美元，對美和歐盟順差雙雙創高，分析師預測全年貿易順差將超越1.2兆美元再創新高，但警告傳統產業增長落後及貿易緊張可能加劇。

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Why It Matters

中國去年貿易順差達1.19兆美元，今年前9月已達9381.1億美元，預計全年將超越1.2兆美元再創新高。9月出口年增36.3%，進口年增31%，顯示外需強勁。

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中國9月出口年增逾36％。（路透）

〔編譯魏國金／台北報導〕中國海關總署14日公布數據顯示，9月中國出口年增36.3％，為2月以來最大增幅，遠高於8月的年增25％以及分析師預期的25.5％成長，預料中國今年貿易順差將超越去年的近1.2兆美元，再創新高，可能加劇與主要貿易夥伴的貿易緊張。

中國9月進口年增31％，從8月的年增28.2％上升，並高於經濟學家預測的24.5％增幅。

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中國去年貿易順差在11月突破1兆美元，全年為1.19兆美元，而今年前9月，貿易順差已達9381.1億美元，除非最後一季出口大幅放緩，否則料將更快觸及1兆美元門檻，目前，該放緩的可能性不大。

《路透》報導，中國9月的貿易順差擴大至1335.3億美元，這主要得益於對美貿易順差340.1億美元，創20個月高點，以及對歐盟的348億美元順差。

本月初歐盟與中國達成協議，將限制中國油電混合汽車出口歐洲的數量，然而，這貢貿易措施可能在12月才正式實施，因此出口商預料會趕在最後期限前增加出貨量。

凱投宏觀中國經濟學家阮黃南（Nguyen Hoang Nam）指出，中國對歐洲的貿易順差擴大，可能引發歐盟推出較上週協議更廣泛的限制，不過預期相關措施對中國經濟的影響不大。

高科技產品與汽車持續支撐中國出口。今年前9月，半導體出口額年增108.1％，汽車出口額與出口量雙雙成長逾50％。隨著人工智慧（AI）基礎設施的推展沒有放緩跡象，分析師預期，對中國科技產品，比如半導體的需求將維持強勁。

彭博分析師曲天石（David Qu）指出，中國9月的強勁貿易數據掩蓋了出口產業的失衡加劇。全球AI擴展以及中國科技產品的產能，持續推動硬體出貨量的強勁成長，然而傳統出口產業，比如服飾、家具與玩具等則成長落後，儘管低基期拉高了年度數據。

國泰君安首席經濟學家周浩說，9月的順差規模突顯中國出口產業的實力強勁，儘管對內需的疑慮仍揮之不去。

一手掌握經濟脈動 點我訂閱自由財經Youtube頻道

What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

  • 中國全年貿易順差將超越1.2兆美元再創新高

    Very likely · Within months

  • 歐盟將在實施油電混合汽車限制後考慮對華擴大貿易限制範圍

    Possible · Within months

Open Questions

  • 歐盟是否將在12月後實施更嚴格的對華貿易限制？
  • 傳統出口產業的疲弱是否將持續影響中國就業？
  • 美國是否將追隨歐盟採取類似貿易限制措施？

Related Topics

中國出口
People阮黃南曲天石周浩
Organizations中國海關總署凱投宏觀彭博國泰君安
Places中國歐盟美國台北
Topics貿易順差半導體汽車出口對美貿易對歐盟貿易AI基礎設施
This article was originally published by 自由时报.

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