It has been 10 years since the United Kingdom "Brexit" and it has begun to discuss whether to return to the European Union. (Reuters)
Brexit "will do more harm than good"! British Prime Minister relents on returning to EU
[Financial Channel/Comprehensive Report] Ten years after the United Kingdom left the European Union, the political winds in London are undergoing a change that has been almost impossible to touch publicly in the past few years. British Prime Minister Andy Burnham publicly stated at the Labor Party conference recently that "Brexit has done more harm than good." He believes that the UK can no longer leave its relationship with Europe unresolved and the government will re-examine the direction of the next decade.
What is even more noteworthy is that Bonan did not draw red lines on rejoining the EU, the single market and the customs union like his former Prime Minister Keir Starmer. The possible options he proposed can be discussed, ranging from maintaining the current system, joining a customs union, rejoining the single market, and "going all the way" to rejoining the EU.
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In other words, the British government has officially put "return to the EU" on the political option table for the first time, but it does not mean that a second referendum has been decided.
According to Bonan's current statement, each model will first be assessed "whether it can be done and what the pros and cons are." It is expected that a more complete direction will be proposed before and after the UK-EU summit later this year. As for whether re-entry will be authorized through the next general election or a referendum will be held later, it has not yet been finalized.
Behind this political shift, British public opinion has also undergone significant changes. According to the latest authoritative polls in 2026, a large-scale poll conducted by The Messina Group with a sample size of 11,461 people showed that 49% supported returning to the EU and 28.5% opposed returning to the EU. It is worth noting that as many as 54.9% of the respondents directly defined "Brexit" as a "failure". In addition, long-term tracking data from YouGov, the UK's top polling organization, also shows the same trend.
Britain’s economic bill emerges 10 years after Brexit (Reuters)
Brexit caused pound to drop 10% in one day
To discuss the extent of the aftermath of Brexit, the pound exchange rate (GBP) is the most intuitive financial barometer. On the surface, the pound has not "collapsed" like many extreme predictions, but if we look at the timeline longer, the trajectory of the pound reveals profound changes in the structure of the British economy.
Analysts pointed out that the pound is strong in the short term and has been relatively resilient against the euro (GBP/EUR) in the recent exchange rate market, maintaining the range between 1.17 and 1.18. This short-term strength is not due to the extremely strong British economy, but to "relative advantage." Behind it is the Bank of England (BoE) maintaining a high benchmark interest rate to curb inflation in the service industry, while the European Central Bank (ECB) faces stronger expectations of interest rate cuts in the face of economic stagnation in Germany and France. The interest rate differential effect supports the short-term trend of the pound against the euro.
However, if the timeline is pulled back to before the Brexit referendum in June 2016, the pound against the euro was as high as 1.30-1.32, and the pound against the US dollar (GBP/USD) was as high as 1.48-1.50.
Analysts pointed out that after the Brexit result was released, the pound plummeted by nearly 10% against the US dollar in a single day, one of the largest single-day declines in the era of free floating exchange rates. According to data from the Bank of England, the pound against the dollar was 1.4798 on June 23, 2016, fell to 1.3621 the next day, and fell below 1.30 a few weeks later. In the past 10 years, although the pound has been far away from the most panic lows of Brexit, it has yet to regain its pre-referendum high.
At the same time, when it comes to the UK's gross domestic product (GDP) performance, according to a number of economic studies and institutional assessments, the overall economic and GDP performance after Brexit is generally not as good as it would have been had it remained in the EU.
Experts say the deeper impact of Brexit is reflected in productivity, investment and trade. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) still assumes that after the UK leaves the EU single market and customs union and adopts the current UK-EU trade cooperation agreement, long-term productivity will be about 4% lower than if it remained in the EU. The OBR believes that the main reason is not the tariff itself, but the increase in non-tariff barriers, which restricts the play of comparative interests; its past estimates also show that the UK's long-term trade intensity may be about 15% lower than the scenario of remaining in the EU.
Another estimate was higher. The US National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) study, published at the end of 2025 and revised in 2026, was estimated by six scholars including Nicholas Bloom of Stanford University using aggregate data and the long-term survey of the British Enterprise Decision Maker Panel; by the end of 2025, Brexit may have made the British GDP 6% to 8% lower than the counterfactual scenario of "no Brexit", business investment was 12% to 13% lower, employment was 3% to 4% lower, and productivity was 3% to 4% lower.
Analysts pointed out that 6% to 8% is not "British GDP really fell by 8%", but the model estimates that the British economy could have reached a higher position without Brexit, creating a gap between the two.
The twin engines of the EU are stalling. Can Britain's return add points to the European economy? Foreign media said so. (Reuters)
Can Britain's return add points to Europe?
Experts point out that when discussing Britain's return to the EU, we cannot just start from the British perspective, but must also examine the current economic difficulties of the EU (especially the two core countries of Germany and France). The key to this matter is that the UK is planning to go back, not to the Europe of 2016, because Germany and France are currently in an economic winter.
The European Commission estimated in May this year that the EU's economic growth in 2026 would be only 1.1%, and the euro zone's economic growth would be only 0.9%. The problems in Germany and France, the two core economies, are particularly obvious. After two consecutive years of recession, Germany's economy will only grow by 0.2% in 2025 and is expected to be 0.6% in 2026; weak energy costs, manufacturing competitiveness and investment are still dragging down the economy.
Today, the German government has turned to large-scale fiscal expansion. The European Commission estimates that the fiscal deficit will expand from 2.7% of GDP in 2025 to 3.7% in 2026.
The French problem is more difficult. The European Commission estimates that France will grow by only 0.8% in 2026, its fiscal deficit will still be as high as 5.1% of GDP, and government debt may rise from 115.6% in 2025 to more than 120% in 2027. Recently, French government bond yields have risen sharply, with the ten-year government bond yield once exceeding 5%. "Reuters" even pointed out that the yield difference between France and Germany's 10-year bond once widened to one of the highest levels since the European debt crisis.
Analysis points out that the EU is still the UK’s largest trading partner. According to statistics from the Library of the House of Commons, the UK's exports of goods and services to the EU in 2025 will be approximately 384 billion pounds, accounting for 41% of all exports; its imports from the EU will be 472 billion pounds, accounting for 50%. Therefore, although the UK has left the EU politically, its economic geography has not moved. If it re-enters the single market or even the EU, it may still be complementary.
If the UK returns, will it add points to the European economy? Experts believe that at least in terms of trade, services, capital markets and strategic capabilities, there is indeed obvious room for complementarity. French media reported that most British people now regret leaving the European Union. A large number of studies have shown that if the United Kingdom had not left the European Union, its economic growth would have been stronger; from a rational point of view, integrating into the European market will benefit the British economy greatly.
The European Policy Think Tank (CER) pointed out that closer UK-EU economic relations will benefit both sides through greater competition and economic dynamism. More importantly, the UK remains one of Europe's leading diplomatic, military and intelligence powers. The think tank bluntly stated that the UK and the EU are the two most important economic and strategic players in Europe. If the two sides continue to divide in areas of overlapping interests, the overall strength of Europe will be weakened.
British Prime Minister Burnham said he hoped to see the UK rejoin the EU "in my lifetime". (Reuters)
The road to reconciliation is long.
Bonnam said he hoped to see the UK rejoin the EU "in my lifetime". It sounds a little strange at first: Britain decided to leave through a referendum in 2016. If public opinion really reverses now, wouldn't it be better to vote again? But the problem is that even if a second referendum does occur and "return to the EU" wins, it can only determine whether Britain wants to start going back, but not when it can really go back. What's more, Bonnen has not yet committed to holding a referendum immediately.
Reuters Breakingviews did analyze that Bonan may first participate in the general election with a pro-European stance and then seek referendum authorization, but this is not a fixed step required by Article 49 of the Treaty on European Union. Experts point out that the UK is now a third country in the eyes of the EU. If it wants to rejoin, it must reapply in accordance with Article 49 of the Treaty on European Union. This is the real difficulty.
To put it simply, the admission of a new member requires the unanimous consent of the 27 EU member states. Any one of the member states may make a request for negotiation in the budget, agriculture, fisheries, justice or other policy areas, and then obtain the consent of the European Parliament; after completion of the negotiations, the accession treaty must be ratified by all relevant countries in accordance with their respective constitutional procedures. This means that even if British voters vote "Yes" again, they cannot unilaterally decide to return to the EU.
Analysis points out that what made the UK special in the EU in the past was not only its membership itself, but also the series of exemptions and special arrangements accumulated through years of negotiations.
Before Brexit, the UK had not been an ordinary member of the EU. It does not use the euro; it has not fully joined the Schengen area, so it can still maintain its own border controls. It also has the famous British budget rebate (UK rebate) in history, as well as special arrangements in areas such as justice and home affairs.
Among them, the most sensitive is the euro. Today's new EU members are in principle committed to adopting the euro after meeting conditions; the UK's "permanent opt-out" was a special arrangement obtained during the Maastricht Treaty negotiations in the 1990s. The UK has no legal vested right to automatically reinstate this exemption if rejoining as a new member.
These benefits were obtained item by item by the UK through negotiations on different treaties in different eras, and are not standard equipment for EU members. Now that the UK has left the EU, these old arrangements will end with membership. If the EU rejoins in the future in accordance with Article 49 of the Treaty on European Union, there is no treaty provision guaranteeing that the old opt-outs will be automatically resurrected.
Experts pointed out that the UK can ask for it, but whether it can get it will be part of the negotiations among the 27 countries. It may also be a new membership card with completely different conditions.
There is only one ticket to leave the EU, but going back is not that simple. The UK needs to go through several hurdles. The EU has no fixed answer as to how long the entire process of Britain's return will take. The speed of negotiations depends on how much EU laws and single market rules the UK is willing to accept, and whether a political consensus can be formed among the 27 countries. Therefore, Bonan's "lifetime" statement does not mean that it will really take decades for the UK to join the EU, but it reflects a political reality: no one can guarantee the timetable.
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