Rates on loans, including mortgages, began to decline following the Bank of Russia rate, but a significant increase in market mortgages will begin after the key rate is reduced to 10%, says Anatoly Aksakov, head of the State Duma Committee on the Financial Market. In an interview with RIA Novosti on the sidelines of the Eastern Economic Forum, he explained who can take mortgage holidays, what measures help in the fight against fraudsters, why a bank can block a money transfer, how to pay with digital rubles, and who spreads fake news about freezing deposits. Interviewed by Elmira Musina.
– Good afternoon, Anatoly Gennadievich. What decision do you expect from the Bank of Russia on the key rate at its meeting in September?
– I think that, taking into account the current pro-inflationary risks, the key rate will be kept at the same level – 14%. I assume, with a small degree of optimism, a decrease of 0.25 percentage points. And I, unfortunately, have to admit that my previous forecast of reducing the key rate to 10% by the end of the year will not come true. Now I believe that it will either remain at the current level or decrease to 13%, but under favorable circumstances. For the Bank of Russia, an important factor in planning the rate trajectory will be budget adjustments for 2026 and the draft budget for the next three years, which the Ministry of Finance will submit to the State Duma before October 1. If the deficit increases excessively, the likelihood of a pause in monetary easing increases.
– What rate is now acceptable for the Russian economy?
- It is better that it be the lowest. Since the Central Bank announced that its target for inflation is 4%, in such situations the key rate is usually 7-8%. I hope that next year, thanks to the strong position and consistent policy of the Central Bank, inflation will drop to 4%, and then in the future the key inflation will be reduced to 7-8%.
– At the same time, the key rate is reduced, but rates on short-term bank deposits are rising. How to explain this?
– This is due, among other things, to the banks’ struggle for clients: they try to lure them away and for this they keep rates quite high. Firstly, due to the reduction in the key rate, people nevertheless began to move savings from the banking system to the financial market, believing that they could earn more there. For example, in the digital financial assets market they promise a return of 20%, or even 30%. Plus, in the summer, part of the money usually moves from the banking system into the pockets of citizens, for example, they buy currency in order to go abroad on vacation. This always happens. But there is no dramatic outflow of funds from the banking system - more than two trillion rubles since the beginning of the year. Despite the fact that there are more than 60 trillion rubles in the deposits and accounts of the population, plus business funds.
– Why then don’t loan rates go down?
– For several reasons. First: after all, the interest on the loan depends on the interest on the deposit, and the interest on deposits was formed before the key rate was reduced; accordingly, loan rates are tied to them and cannot be quickly reduced. Second: banking regulation. Consumer lending grew quite quickly in the first half of this year. And the Central Bank restrained the appetite of credit institutions to issue loans, since this is fraught with an increase in risk for the banking system. This also affects the market situation.
– And if we talk about market mortgages, is the patient now more likely alive or dead? What can be done to revive him?
– Basically, mortgage lending now lives thanks to the preferential program for family mortgages, where the rate is 6%. In the first half of the year, the share of preferential programs in the total volume of mortgage loans issued was 60%, even a little more. So this direction is still more promising. But the mortgage market, thanks to a decrease in the key rate, as well as interest on mortgage loans, is reviving. If a year ago the share of market mortgages was 20%, now it exceeds 40%. That is, the demand for mortgage loans on a market basis is growing, which inspires optimism. Of course, we should expect a more significant increase in market mortgages when the key rate drops to 12%, or even 10%. Then the demand for mortgage loans will definitely increase, and the market will actively develop.
– How much do people save on average for a mortgage, and what is the average amount of a mortgage loan in Russia?
– According to my information, the average amount of mortgage loans is more than 4.5 million rubles. And if they buy a new home, they save for 3.5 years. If on the finished housing market, then 2.5 years.
– Historically, August is a month of defaults and shocks, and this year there were also rumors about the freezing or seizure of bank deposits of Russians. Who benefits from this?
– These rumors are definitely being deliberately launched from abroad in order to shake up our market. It is stupid to freeze deposits, funds of the population and enterprises, since this is a blow to the financial system itself, to business, to the state. This contradicts all economic logic, so no one will take such actions. You just have to be an idiot to make the appropriate decision. On the contrary, everything is being done to ensure that people confidently work with banks and financial institutions, which are strong components of our economy and one of its most profitable sectors.
– So this absolutely cannot happen?
– This contradicts all sound logic. It's just shooting yourself in all places, including your head. It's just idiotic.
– Another rumor is that banks may be subject to an excess profit tax. Is this idea being discussed?
– Serious people don’t discuss this. Banks are part of the financial system; if they work effectively, it means they earn a profit, which goes towards their capitalization. If there is no source of capitalization, lending to the economy will not increase - everything is very interconnected.
– A unified system of payment bank cards will soon be operational in Russia, what is this for?
– In order to combat droppers, it was decided that a citizen should have no more than 20 cards in his hands. This restriction will be implemented from September 1, 2027, but it is necessary to prepare now. And the National Payment Card System will deal with this from September 1 of this year, including tracking cards that are taken out of circulation. If someone tries to use them to pay for goods, services, or financial transactions, these actions will be brought under control. And the NSPK will receive a signal that a certain person is trying to use a card whose service has been stopped. The purpose of the system is to eliminate the mass issuance of cards to dummies and to quickly identify fraudsters.
– What should those Russians who have more than 20 cards do?
– Obsolete cards will gradually go out of circulation naturally, that is, there will be no need to hand them over somewhere. Firstly, according to statistics, citizens on average have no more than four cards in their hands, so we can say that the decision will affect a small part of our society. But these people will be able to use the cards, even if there are more than 20 or even 50 of them, until these cards expire. However, before this, a person will not be able to receive new cards. There must come a period when he has, for example, 19 cards in his hands - then he will be able to go to the bank for the 20th card. He will have such an opportunity.
– Now Russians can impose self-bans, for example, on loans and real estate transactions. How popular and effective are they in the fight against fraudsters?
– Self-prohibitions in various areas work very well. They cover the most dangerous fraudulent scenarios: issuing a loan for a person using stolen data, remote sale of housing, issuing a SIM card using forged documents to access an online bank.
If we talk about self-prohibition on obtaining loans, then more than 20 million of our citizens have already established it, thanks to which the number of thefts of credit funds has decreased, if not by 50%, then close to this. Next year it will be possible to set a self-ban on calls from abroad on State Services. But telecom operators are already proactively providing this service. This will also become an additional barrier against scammers. From September 1, a self-prohibition on gambling will come into effect. Moreover, it can be removed no earlier than in a year. We expect that gambling people will take advantage of this self-prohibition. I directly encountered people who asked for help.
– What other self-prohibitions are needed, for example, for online purchases on marketplaces?
– Such proposals are voiced, they need to be studied. But I would not act impulsively - we need to analyze the feasibility of this initiative.
– Russia has already launched two packages of measures against fraudsters. How effective are they?
– In my opinion, Antifraud works effectively. The very fact of expanding interaction between the Central Bank, the government, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, business, and telecommunications companies makes it possible to quickly exchange information and suppress the actions of criminal elements. The legal decisions taken are already producing results, which is reflected in the growth of fraudulent attacks successfully repelled by banks and trillions of rubles saved. And we are already preparing “Antifraud 3.0”.
– What will be included in the third package?
– If we talk about the financial market, we are discussing the situation related to the provision of services to our citizens. Often, current requirements also affect respectable citizens who do not intend to carry out any dubious transactions, but due to strict criteria are subject to restrictions. I encountered this myself when I opened an account in one of the banks. I wanted to carry out an operation, transfer money, and they interrogated me. Naturally, I did not like this interrogation. At the same time, they apologized that they were forced to do this due to the adopted legislation. Therefore, it is obvious that financial institutions need to be given the opportunity to act more freely when implementing such legislative norms, given that they have accumulated significant experience in analyzing clients.
It is advisable to allow banks to apply restrictions on financial transactions more flexibly if, based on experience and accumulated knowledge, they understand when it is really a criminal act and when it is a legitimate transaction. There must be freedom in this regard. I believe that this could be enshrined in legislation.
If we talk about SIM cards, then here too we need to tighten the requirements - often criminal elements take too freely the opportunity to purchase SIM cards, and we will obviously prescribe additional protective standards.
– What advice can you give to teenagers to avoid falling for the tricks of scammers and what to do if you have already fallen for it?
“I think that it is necessary to talk about the risks that they have, to tell them that the consequences of such actions for them can be irreparable. Of course, I would not only appeal to teenagers, it is important to influence parents - after all, parents raise their children, and obviously parents can be the first to convey information about existing dangers. I admit that there should also be an educational element - the financial literacy system in schools should be actively implemented and not only on an optional basis.
– You were the first to receive a salary in digital rubles. When it is fully integrated into our lives, do you plan to use it everywhere?
– From September 1, every citizen will be able to use the digital ruble, open an account in the Central Bank system and carry out transactions with organizations that have an annual turnover of 120 million rubles or more. And this opportunity will also be realized through marketplaces: there will be no need to go to stores, it will be possible to remotely use the digital ruble to pay for goods and services, and the platform will have to provide this opportunity. I use the digital ruble, but I used it very little because there weren’t these outlets. From September 1, I will definitely try to spend my digital rubles to see how the system works, whether something has really changed.
– And it turns out that starting September 1, it will also be possible to pay in digital rubles on marketplaces?
– On the largest marketplaces – yes. I will also try it on purpose and check it.
– Against the backdrop of the introduction of the digital ruble, do you expect a surge in fraudulent transactions, and how to protect yourself from them?
– On the one hand, I don’t believe that everyone will rush to open digital ruble accounts with the Central Bank - people take this calmly. I think that young people will most likely start doing this, but not as rapidly as some people think.
At the same time, it is obvious that scammers, seeing a new phenomenon on which they can make extra money, will primarily target young people: “you have the opportunity to use the digital ruble, there are certain benefits there.” What are the benefits? It is known that no commission fees apply to digital ruble transfers. If a person transfers money, no matter what amount he transfers, and no matter who he transfers to, no commission is charged.
For legal entities, a small commission fee is 0.3%, but not more than one and a half thousand rubles. Naturally, scammers will voice these points in order to lure. Therefore, you need to be more careful.
Although the security of the digital ruble is higher than in banks, because in order to enter the account where your digital rubles are located, you must first enter the commercial bank system, and in this system, go to the Central Bank platform in order to carry out transactions with the digital ruble. That is, two security systems will need to be overcome before money can be stolen from your account.
– It turns out that all major banks are ready for the digital ruble. What will happen to those banks and companies who are not ready by the appointed deadline?
– From September 1 of this year, 21 banks will have to ensure the use of the digital ruble. Some credit institutions have acquired such an obligation only recently. I contacted the Central Bank and received an answer that the regulator will not punish these banks, but will ensure that they quickly prepare for the use of the digital ruble. I think that by the end of the year these banks will be ready - it’s not that difficult. It's expensive, it's not a cheap pleasure, but overall the system is ready.
– A revival of the IPO market was expected this year, but so far it has not been particularly noticeable. In your opinion, under what conditions will this happen?
– In order for the IPO market to begin to actively develop, there must be a demand for company shares, while the companies themselves are reluctant to go to the market. The main deterrent for them is that the procedure itself is expensive, and the lack of faith that these costs will lead to results.
The company needs to be stimulated through finances: if you enter the stock market, you will get access to all the preferential programs that the state supports. Accordingly, those who would like to take advantage of government subsidies will be forced to go not to credit organizations, but to the securities market. And then the market will come to life.
– Is the stock market in Russia even alive now?
– The stock market is going through a restructuring phase. After the departure of a significant part of foreign investors, the market changes its model: Russian private investors play an increasingly prominent role in it. In recent years, we have developed a strong base of domestic shareholders.
