No war or peace between the United States and Iran has become the new normal in the Middle East. Homtz transportation and insurance costs have soared 10 times before the war.

As U.S. President Trump considers his next move against Iran, the U.S.-Iran conflict has fallen into a "no-war, no-peace" situation. In this regard, Reuters analyzed that although energy producing countries in the Persian Gulf region have gradually adapted to this situation, the conflict between the United States and Iran has still increased the operating costs of energy companies and increased risks.

According to Reuters, the price of international benchmark Brent crude fell below US$90 per barrel (approximately NT$2,956) on the 10th, the first time since the end of August. Energy data analysis agency Kpler also shows that since the beginning of October, crude oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz has reached an average of 10.5 million barrels per day, which has rebounded significantly compared with the period when transportation was most severely hampered.

With the Republican Party suffering a disastrous defeat in the U.S. midterm elections, investors increasingly do not believe that the U.S.-Iran conflict will escalate significantly again. Trump's statement also further strengthened investors' views. He said that the United States will suspend new military actions against Iran in response to calls from allies in the Persian Gulf.

"Reuters" stated that Trump's current decision to suspend large-scale air strikes does not necessarily mean that the conflict is about to end. Instead, it may just be a tactical pause. Trump may evaluate whether to use the next round of air strikes to strengthen the United States' bargaining chip in negotiations in order to obtain favorable conditions for the end of the U.S.-Iran conflict.

"Reuters" pointed out that even if the risk of another full-scale war between the United States and Iran has been reduced, the costs that must be borne while the current conflict continues have not been reduced. Iran will still launch attacks on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. According to statistics from the International Maritime Organization, from the announcement of the US-Iran conflict on February 28 to November 9, 131 confirmed attacks on ships have been tracked near the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil and liquefied natural gas exporters in the Persian Gulf region have taken various response measures, including arranging for oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz in a fleet and sailing along the narrower channel near the coast of Oman under the escort of the US Navy.

These complex modes of transportation still work, but at a high cost. Freight and insurance costs are still about 10 times their pre-war levels.

Iran currently has every incentive to continue attacking ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The oil export blockade imposed by the United States on Iran is severely damaging the Iranian economy, but Iran has shown no sign of being willing to compromise on its bottom line. How long the United States is willing to bear the financial and military burden to protect shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is a question.

The situation without war or peace between the United States and Iran may also hinder the reconstruction of energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf region, especially in Saudi Arabia. The country's energy facilities were damaged during the conflict and continue to be under attack by Yemen's Iran-aligned rebel youth movement.

"Reuters" finally emphasized that the real danger in the conflict between the United States and Iran is not that the war will escalate again, causing a dramatic surge in oil prices. The most worrying thing is that the Middle East may gradually fall into a situation where it is harder to detect the harm, that is, a situation in which the intensity of the conflict is enough to put maritime transportation in constant danger and the cost of insurance remains high, but the conflict is controlled to a certain extent, so that the world gradually learns to coexist with this situation.