
中国气象局9月29日发布厄尔尼诺最新监测情况,9月以来赤道中东太平洋海温持续增暖,候和旬尺度海温指数首次突破3摄氏度,预计11月前后海温指数峰值达3.2至3.5摄氏度,将形成有监测记录以来最强的超强厄尔尼诺事件,对我国汛期、秋冬及明年春夏季气候将产生显著影响。
AI-generated summary
厄尔尼诺是指赤道中东太平洋海表温度异常升高的气候现象,通常会导致全球气候异常。中国自1950年代开始监测厄尔尼诺事件,历史上曾出现过1982-1983年、1997-1998年和2014-2016年三次超强厄尔尼诺事件。
本报北京9月29日电 (记者李红梅)29日,中国气象局召开的新闻发布会发布了厄尔尼诺最新监测情况:根据国家气候中心监测,9月以来赤道中东太平洋海温持续增暖,为有监测记录以来候和旬尺度海温指数首次突破3摄氏度,海温指数峰值预计出现在11月前后,形成一次有监测记录以来最强的超强厄尔尼诺事件。
根据国家气候中心监测,赤道中东太平洋已于今年5月进入厄尔尼诺状态。其后海温指数继续快速升高,9月以来赤道中东太平洋海温持续增暖,第1—5候的监测区海温指数分别为2.70摄氏度、2.94摄氏度、3.01摄氏度、3.01摄氏度、3.02摄氏度,为有监测记录以来候和旬尺度海温指数首次突破3摄氏度。
据国家气候中心预测,赤道中东太平洋海表温度将继续呈波动上升态势,海温指数峰值预计出现在11月前后,为3.2摄氏度到3.5摄氏度,将明显高于历史最大值(2.8摄氏度,2014—2016年超强厄尔尼诺事件峰值),形成一次有监测记录以来最强的超强厄尔尼诺事件。有监测记录以来,此前共出现过3次超强厄尔尼诺事件,分别发生于1982—1983年、1997—1998年和2014—2016年。当前海温监测指数及其增暖速率均显著高于上述3次事件的同期水平。
厄尔尼诺的快速发展对我国今年汛期的气候影响明显,中东部地区降水总体呈“南北多、中间少”格局,涝重于旱。当前厄尔尼诺还将继续发展,并将对全球和我国今年秋冬季和明年春夏季气候产生影响。
预计今年秋季(10—11月),我国中东部大部降水偏多,江南大部和西南地区东部局部偏多五至八成,极端降水及山洪、滑坡、泥石流等风险高;华西秋雨总体偏多,呈“南多北少”空间分布;内蒙古西南部、西北地区东北部等地降水偏少超过二至五成,气象干旱和森林草原火险风险较高。
预计冬季(2026年12月至2027年2月),我国气温总体偏高,寒潮频次略偏多,气温冷暖起伏大;降水总体偏多,需重点防范阶段性强寒潮和南方低温雨雪冰冻影响。预计2027年春夏季,厄尔尼诺将快速衰减至结束,但对我国气候的影响仍然显著,极端天气气候事件增多,气温明显偏高,夏季高温热浪强度更强、范围更广。
我国以中东太平洋关键海区海水表面温度指标作为厄尔尼诺相关判别依据,当海表温度距平指数(某一时段平均气温与同期气候基准值的差值)连续3个月达到或超0.5摄氏度时,表明已进入厄尔尼诺状态。若该状态持续5个月及以上,则判定为一次厄尔尼诺事件。
厄尔尼诺事件强度可分为4个等级:弱事件(峰值≥0.5摄氏度且<1.3摄氏度)、中等事件(≥1.3摄氏度且<2.0摄氏度)、强事件(≥2.0摄氏度且<2.5摄氏度)和超强事件(≥2.5摄氏度)。
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
厄尔尼诺海温指数峰值将出现在11月前后,达到3.2至3.5摄氏度
Very likely · Within weeks
我国中东部大部秋季降水偏多,极端降水及山洪、滑坡、泥石流风险高
Likely · Within months
我国冬季气温总体偏高,寒潮频次略偏多,需防范阶段性强寒潮和南方低温雨雪冰冻影响
Likely · Within months

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