Beijing, September 29 (Reporter Li Hongmei) On the 29th, a press conference held by the China Meteorological Administration released the latest monitoring situation of El Niño: According to the National Climate Center, sea temperatures in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific Ocean have continued to warm since September. This is the first time in monitoring records that the climatic and decadal scale sea temperature index has exceeded 3 degrees Celsius. The peak of the sea temperature index is expected to occur around November, forming the strongest super El Niño event in the history of monitoring records.
According to monitoring by the National Climate Center, the equatorial central and eastern Pacific Ocean entered El Niño status in May this year. Since then, the SST index has continued to rise rapidly. Since September, the SST in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific has continued to warm. The SST index in the monitoring areas of the 1st to 5th pentads is 2.70°C, 2.94°C, 3.01°C, 3.01°C, and 3.02°C respectively. This is the first time that the climatic and decadal-scale SST index has exceeded 3°C since there are monitoring records.
According to the National Climate Center, sea surface temperatures in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific will continue to fluctuate and rise. The peak of the sea temperature index is expected to occur around November, at 3.2 degrees Celsius to 3.5 degrees Celsius, which will be significantly higher than the historical maximum (2.8 degrees Celsius, the peak of the super El Niño event from 2014 to 2016), forming the strongest super El Niño event in the history of monitoring records. Since monitoring records began, there have been three previous super strong El Niño events, which occurred in 1982-1983, 1997-1998 and 2014-2016. The current sea temperature monitoring index and its warming rate are significantly higher than the same period levels of the above three events.
The rapid development of El Niño has a significant impact on the climate of my country's flood season this year. Precipitation in the central and eastern regions generally follows a pattern of "more in the north and south and less in the middle", with floods being more severe than droughts. The current El Niño will continue to develop and will have an impact on the climate of the world and my country this autumn and winter and next spring and summer.
It is expected that this autumn (October-November), most of the central and eastern parts of my country will receive more precipitation, with most parts of Jiangnan and the eastern part of the southwestern region being 50% to 80% more likely to experience extreme precipitation, flash floods, landslides, debris flows, etc. The risk of extreme precipitation, flash floods, landslides, mudslides, etc. will be high; West China's autumn rain will generally be more abundant, showing a spatial distribution of "more in the south and less in the north"; precipitation will be less than 20% to 50% in southwestern Inner Mongolia and the northeastern part of northwest China, with higher risks of meteorological drought and forest and grassland fires.
It is expected that in the winter (December 2026 to February 2027), my country's temperatures will be generally higher, the frequency of cold waves will be slightly more frequent, and the temperature will fluctuate greatly. Precipitation will be generally high, and it is necessary to focus on preventing periodic strong cold waves and the impact of low-temperature rain and snow in the south. It is expected that El Niño will rapidly decay and end in the spring and summer of 2027, but its impact on my country's climate will still be significant. Extreme weather and climate events will increase, temperatures will be significantly higher, and summer high-temperature heat waves will be stronger and wider in scope.
my country uses sea surface temperature indicators in key sea areas of the Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean as the basis for El Niño-related judgments. When the sea surface temperature anomaly index (the difference between the average temperature of a certain period and the climate benchmark value of the same period) reaches or exceeds 0.5 degrees Celsius for three consecutive months, it indicates that it has entered an El Niño state. If this state lasts for 5 months or more, it is determined to be an El Niño event.
The intensity of El Niño events can be divided into four levels: weak events (peak values ≥0.5 degrees Celsius and <1.3 degrees Celsius), moderate events (≥1.3 degrees Celsius and <2.0 degrees Celsius), strong events (≥2.0 degrees Celsius and <2.5 degrees Celsius) and very strong events (≥2.5 degrees Celsius).
